Market Signals

Real-time Sentiment & Structural Risk. Market mood, structural pressure points, and cycle positioning — the inputs that drive scoring and portfolio sizing.

Market Mood 37.4/100 Fear

MO-FEAR

Extreme Fear (F&G)

Last updated: 2026-04-11 18:33:11

Composite Stress Gauge 62/100 ELEVATED

Active Pressure Points

MR-4Y MR-JGB MR-TOEHOLD MR-LEVERAGE

4th Year Pattern: 3-year streak (+24)
JGB Yield Critical: 2.11% (+20)
Construction Warning: Payrolls -0.4% (+10)
Margin Leverage Elevated: Z-Score 1.1 (+8)

VIX (1Y) 19.2

🎯 Positioning

MO-FEAR + ELEVATED Risk Risk: ELEVATED (62/100)

Defensive posture, raise cash

Fear aligned with high systemic risk. Prioritize capital preservation.

👁️ Smart Money Confirmation

⚪ Mood Confirmed

8 Stocks w/ Insider Buying

158 Stocks w/ Insider Selling

Net Insider Activity (6mo): $-23,274,413,926,411,280

Top Insider Buys:

RPD UPST NOW INTC TSM

📊 Margin Debt Momentum 12-Month Rolling Z-Score

MR-MARGIN

Contrarian Indicator: The Z-Score measures how far current margin debt is from its 12-month rolling average in standard deviations.

Current Z-Score 1.12

Status NEUTRAL

📊 Cycle Status

Aggregate Cycle Health: 32/100 Updated: N/A

Cycle	Name	Current Phase	Evidence	Cycle Position
C1	Semiconductor Inventory	PEAK	SOXX YoY: +111.6%	90%
C2	AI Infrastructure CapEx	SATURATION	CapEx YoY: +64.0%	85%
C3	Consumer Product	ACCUMULATION	AAPL Rev YoY: +12.9%	40%
C4	Physical & Commodity	SHORTAGE	vs MA200: +24.2%	85%
C5	Financial Conditions	TIGHTENING	10Y Yield: 4.3%	70%
C6	Automotive & Mobility	SATURATION	Sales YoY: -9.1%	85%

🏭 TSMC Monthly Revenue

LEADING INDICATOR C1

Monthly revenue data from TSMC — a leading indicator for the Semiconductor Inventory Cycle (C1). Revenue acceleration often precedes broader sector recovery.

🚀 AI Realization Index

PHASE_3 C2

Tracking the "Phase 4" inflection: When AI User (T10) revenue growth overtakes AI Builder (AI-B) growth.

Action: Maintain AI-B exposure

AI Users (T10) Growth 19.36%

AI Builders (AI-B) Growth 21.36%

Differential -2.01pp

🎯 Cycle-Based Stock Recommendations

Stocks to consider based on current cycle phases. Derived from C1-C6 positions.

📈 BUY 26 stocks

Cycles in recovery/expansion phase favor these positions.

CCJ Cameco Corporation C2 C4 GEV GE Vernova Inc. C2 C4 GOOGL Alphabet Inc. C2 C3 BE Bloom Energy Corpora... C2 C4 PL Planet Labs PBC C2 C4 DNN Denison Mines Corp. C2 C4 DELL Dell Technologies In... C2 C3 EME EMCOR Group, Inc. C2 C4 ALB Albemarle Corporatio... C2 C4 AAPL Apple Inc. C2 C3 META Meta Platforms, Inc. C2 C3 RDDT Reddit, Inc. C2 C3 FSLR First Solar, Inc. C2 C4 CEG Constellation Energy... C2 C4 PWR Quanta Services, Inc... C2 C4 BWXT BWX Technologies, In... C2 C4 AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. C2 C3 ETN Eaton Corporation pl... C2 C4 CRUS Cirrus Logic, Inc. C2 C3 KTOS Kratos Defense & Sec... C2 C4 TLN Talen Energy Corpora... C2 C4 OKLO Oklo Inc. C2 C4 MP MP Materials Corp. C2 C4 DCI Donaldson Company, I... C2 C4 VST Vistra Corp. C2 C4 AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. C2 C4

⏸️ HOLD 2 stocks

Cycles in neutral or mixed phases.

VRT Vertiv Holdings Co C2 CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. C2

📉 TRIM 138 stocks

Cycles in peak/contraction phase suggest reducing exposure.

ASML ASML Holding N.V. C1 C2 FN Fabrinet C1 C2 TER Teradyne, Inc. C1 C2 APP AppLovin Corporation C2 C5 MU Micron Technology, I... C1 C2 AMD Advanced Micro Devic... C1 C2 AEVA Aeva Technologies, I... C2 C6 VRSN VeriSign, Inc. C2 C5 FIX Comfort Systems USA,... C2 C5 MSFT Microsoft Corporatio... C2 C5 AAON AAON, Inc. C2 C5 SNDK Sandisk Corporation C1 C2 INTU Intuit Inc. C2 C5 MOD Modine Manufacturing... C2 C6 WDC Western Digital Corp... C1 C2 GFS GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. C1 C2 TSM Taiwan Semiconductor... C1 C2 RMBS Rambus Inc. C1 C2 RKLB Rocket Lab Corporati... C2 C5 TRMB Trimble Inc. C2 C6 FTNT Fortinet, Inc. C2 C5 UBER Uber Technologies, I... C3 C5 ORCL Oracle Corporation C2 C5 BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway I... C2 C5 ANET Arista Networks, Inc... C1 C2 NXPI NXP Semiconductors N... C1 C6 ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. C1 C2 NVDA NVIDIA Corporation C1 C2 STRL Sterling Infrastruct... C2 C5 ITT ITT Inc. C2 C6 IONQ IonQ, Inc. C1 C2 LITE Lumentum Holdings In... C1 C2 HOOD Robinhood Markets, I... C3 C5 SMCI Super Micro Computer... C1 C2 RBLX Roblox Corporation C3 C5 STX Seagate Technology H... C1 C2 MA Mastercard Incorpora... C3 C5 JOBY Joby Aviation, Inc. C2 C5 SHOP Shopify Inc. C3 C5 ADBE Adobe Inc. C2 C5 MRVL Marvell Technology, ... C1 C2 SIMO Silicon Motion Techn... C1 C2 CRDO Credo Technology Gro... C1 C2 SANM Sanmina Corporation C1 C2 SOFI SoFi Technologies, I... C3 C5 AVGO Broadcom Inc. C1 C2 ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. C1 C2 QLYS Qualys, Inc. C2 C5 ADSK Autodesk, Inc. C2 C5 DUOL Duolingo, Inc. C3 C5 LSCC Lattice Semiconducto... C1 C2 SNPS Synopsys, Inc. C1 C2 ALGM Allegro MicroSystems... C1 C6 DDOG Datadog, Inc. C2 C5 ADI Analog Devices, Inc. C1 C6 NFLX Netflix, Inc. C3 C5 PANW Palo Alto Networks, ... C2 C5 KLAC KLA Corporation C1 C2 PLTR Palantir Technologie... C2 C5 AMAT Applied Materials, I... C1 C2 IT Gartner, Inc. C2 C5 AKAM Akamai Technologies,... C2 C5 NXT Nextpower Inc. C2 C5 AXP American Express Com... C3 C5 SAP SAP SE C2 C5 PSTG Everpure, Inc. C1 C2 GEN Gen Digital Inc. C3 C5 QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporate... C1 C2 LRCX Lam Research Corpora... C1 C2 COHR Coherent Corp. C1 C2 GTLB GitLab Inc. C2 C5 ZS Zscaler, Inc. C2 C5 WTS Watts Water Technolo... C2 C5 MTSI MACOM Technology Sol... C1 C2 FORM FormFactor, Inc. C1 C2 SLAB Silicon Laboratories... C1 C2 OKTA Okta, Inc. C2 C5 SMTC Semtech Corporation C1 C2 ZM Zoom Communications,... C2 C5 WDAY Workday, Inc. C2 C5 NVT nVent Electric plc C2 C5 CRM Salesforce, Inc. C2 C5 DOCU DocuSign, Inc. C2 C5 IOT Samsara Inc. C2 C5 VICR Vicor Corporation C1 C2 NOW ServiceNow, Inc. C2 C5 CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. C2 C5 CDNS Cadence Design Syste... C1 C2 SPOT Spotify Technology S... C3 C5 QRVO Qorvo, Inc. C1 C2 CAMT Camtek Ltd. C1 C2 DY Dycom Industries, In... C2 C5 NET Cloudflare, Inc. C2 C5 IESC IES Holdings, Inc. C2 C5 PEGA Pegasystems Inc. C2 C5 ON ON Semiconductor Cor... C1 C6 HPE Hewlett Packard Ente... C2 C5 FROG JFrog Ltd. C2 C5 MPWR Monolithic Power Sys... C2 C6 EBAY eBay Inc. C3 C5 MCHP Microchip Technology... C1 C6 NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. C2 C5 BKNG Booking Holdings Inc... C3 C5 FFIV F5, Inc. C2 C5 TENB Tenable Holdings, In... C2 C5 NTAP NetApp, Inc. C2 C5 AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc... C3 C5 CFLT Confluent, Inc. C2 C5 INTC Intel Corporation C1 C2 TSLA Tesla, Inc. C2 C6 PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc... C3 C5 ENS EnerSys C2 C5 ALLY Ally Financial Inc. C3 C5 TEAM Atlassian Corporatio... C2 C5 ARM Arm Holdings plc C1 C2 CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings... C2 C5 TWLO Twilio Inc. C2 C5 PATH UiPath, Inc. C2 C5 AWI Armstrong World Indu... C2 C5 AXTI AXT, Inc. C1 C2 IBP Installed Building P... C4 C5 POWI Power Integrations, ... C1 C2 S SentinelOne, Inc. C2 C5 AMKR Amkor Technology, In... C1 C2 MDB MongoDB, Inc. C2 C5 TXN Texas Instruments In... C1 C6 IBM International Busine... C2 C5 PCTY Paylocity Holding Co... C2 C5 LII Lennox International... C2 C5 SNOW Snowflake Inc. C2 C5 MTZ MasTec, Inc. C2 C5 SWKS Skyworks Solutions, ... C1 C6 ABNB Airbnb, Inc. C3 C5 UPST Upstart Holdings, In... C3 C5 RPD Rapid7, Inc. C2 C5 SOUN SoundHound AI, Inc. C2 C5 EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. C3 C5 BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings,... C2 C5