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MTZ

MasTec, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (19)
361.12
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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94.3%
76.5%
โ–ผ
103.9%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
19.8 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 9.8 /40
Quality Score: 34.4 ร— 0.4
M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

S-I1-GRID Stack: S-I1-GRID

Traditional grid, slow returns

G-DYNASTY Governance: G-DYNASTY

Dual-class or nepotism concerns

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

S-POWER-SECURE Grid Infrastructure Dominance

MTZ's role in grid modernization and energy cycles (C2, C5) provides a structural advantage in securing power for critical AI hyperscaler infrastructure.

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 0.0 /30
Low Conviction (0.0 pts)
T9 Tailwind: T9

Beneficiary of 2025/26 policy shifts

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-3 Insider-Analyst Sentiment Conflict

While 18 analysts maintain a 'strong buy' consensus, insider signals are bearish with a net share reduction of 9,379 shares and total sell value of $2,659,422 in the last 6 months.

RISK-1 Market Valuation Premium

MTZ is currently trading at $361.22, which is 5.8% above the analyst mean target of $341.28. This divergence suggests the stock may be overvalued relative to current fundamental estimates (V-OVERVALUED).

CAT-1 AI-Driven Grid Expansion

As an S-I1-GRID provider, MTZ is positioned to capture high-margin contracts for AI data center power requirements (T1 tailwind), which may sustain the current price premium.

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-2 EPS Growth Deceleration

Analyst forecasts indicate a sharp deceleration in EPS growth from 94.2% in the current quarter to 43.9% in the next quarter, and further slowing to 26.0% for the following year.

T4 Sovereign Resilience

Sovereign resilience & energy security

โšก Tactical 10.0 /30
โœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)

Overview

MasTec Inc is an infrastructure construction firm specializing in the engineering, building, and maintenance of energy, utility, and communications systems. The company provides critical services for high-voltage transmission, renewable energy facilities, and telecommunications networks across North America.

Market Cap 28.50B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth 0.2%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Jose Ramon Mas
Sector: Industrials โ€ข Engineering & Construction

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ AI-driven grid expansion for hyperscaler data center power requirements

While MasTec trades at a 5.8% premium to analyst price targets ($361.22 vs $341.28) and faces a projected EPS growth deceleration from 94.2% to 43.9% next quarter, its role in physical grid expansion proves the company is a primary beneficiary of AI-driven power requirements. The stock's current valuation remains high despite $2.66M in net insider selling over the last six months, suggesting internal skepticism regarding the current price level. However, the company's ability to exceed earnings expectations for four consecutive quarters provides a counterpoint to the sequential revenue contraction of -0.7%. As an AI-B classified entity, MasTec captures value through irreproducible physical assets rather than software services, insulating it from the deflationary risks of automated labor.

Bear 205.00
โ–ผ
Bull 420.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-27 Sell 309.2K
2026-03-05 Sell 2M
2025-11-05 Sell 397.7K

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

MasTec Inc (MTZ) reported a 15.8% year-over-year revenue growth, though sequential growth showed a slight contraction of -0.7%. The company maintains tight gross margins of 12.9% and a Free Cash Flow (FCF) margin of 2.0%, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of its infrastructure projects. Performance is driven by its S-I1-GRID positioning, focusing on grid modernization (T6) and renewable energy (T9). Management continues to deliver on earnings, maintaining a perfect track record of four consecutive beats over the last four quarters, despite the sequential revenue dip.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates