Market Signals
Real-time Sentiment & Structural Risk. Market mood, structural pressure points, and cycle positioning — the inputs that drive scoring and portfolio sizing.
Snapshot updated: 2026-09-01 04:30:53 UTC
- 4th Year Pattern: 3-year streak (+24)
- JGB Yield Critical: 2.67% (+20)
- Margin Leverage Elevated: Z-Score 1.18 (+8)
- Inflationary Heatmap: DBC vs TLT +7.1pp (3m) (+15)
Normal positioning - monitor indicators
Market sentiment is balanced. Maintain current portfolio allocation.
Read of the mood and stress gauges above. Informational only — not investment advice.
🧭 What Defines Market Mood
The headline Market Mood score is CNN's Fear & Greed Index — the trusted equity composite. VIX, NASDAQ trend and Mag 7 breadth don't move that number (CNN already embeds volatility, momentum and breadth); instead they trigger the mood codes and add context below.
Fear & Greed
CNN's equity Fear & Greed composite — this is the headline Market Mood score. Below 25 also flags MO-FEAR; above 80 flags MO-EUPHORIA.
Source: CNN Business ↗VIX (Implied Volatility)
VIX > 20 triggers MO-FEAR. It no longer moves the headline score directly — CNN's Fear & Greed already includes market volatility.
NASDAQ Trend
RSI > 75 contributes to MO-EUPHORIA. Trend above moving averages confirms strength.
Mag 7 Breadth
Fewer than 3 of 7 above 50DMA while NASDAQ rallies triggers MO-DIVERGENCE.
🛡️ What Defines the Composite Stress Gauge
The Composite Stress Gauge sums points across structural pressure points (MR codes). Orange cards are actively signalling stress; green cards are being monitored but currently calm.
Historical correction after multi-year rally
JGB yield rise triggers carry trade unwind
FINRA margin debt Z-score momentum
Commodities outperforming bonds — overheating
Normalized leverage vs historical peak
Construction payrolls declining — recession signal
Shelter CPI YoY declining toward headline
S&P at ATH while real economy weakens — Fed forced to ease
Yield curve steepening aggressively
Fed discount window usage elevated
High yield credit spread widening
📊 Margin Debt Momentum 12-Month Rolling Z-Score
Contrarian Indicator: The Z-Score measures how far current margin debt is from its 12-month rolling average in standard deviations.
📊 Cycle Status
Cycle Clock
Where each cycle sits (horizontal) against which way it is moving (vertical). A cycle below its own mean and turning up is recovering; the same level still falling is contracting. The level alone cannot tell the two apart.
Cycle Timeline
Each cycle is normalized to a Z-score against its own history so they can be overlaid. Toggle cycles on/off to compare — three are shown by default because six lines at once is not readable.
Current Snapshot
| Cycle | Name | Current Phase | Evidence | Level / Momentum | Cycle Position (early → late) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Semiconductor Production FRED IPG3344S | EXPANSION | Semi Output YoY: +11.86% | 1.03 / 0.65 | |
| C2 | AI Infrastructure CapEx Company filings | SATURATION | CapEx YoY: +97.7% | 2.1 / 0.58 | |
| C3 | Consumer Product Company filings | SLOWDOWN | AAPL Rev YoY: +16.4% | 0.38 / -0.06 | |
| C4 | Physical & Commodity FRED PINDUINDEXM / CPIAUCSL | EXPANSION | Real input prices: 216.52 | 0.02 / 0.8 | |
| C5 | Financial Conditions FRED NFCI | CONTRACTION | NFCI: -0.56 | -0.43 / -0.19 | |
| C6 | Automotive & Mobility FRED TOTALSA | RECOVERY | Sales YoY: -1.42% | -0.24 / 0.24 |