Market Signals

Market mood, structural pressure points and cycle positioning.

Snapshot updated: 2026-10-16 04:31:15 UTC

Market Mood 31/100 Fear

Composite Stress Gauge 77/100 CRITICAL

Active Pressure Points

MR-4Y MR-JGB MR-LEVERAGE MR-WINDOW MR-HEATMAP

4th Year Pattern: 3-year streak
JGB Yield Critical: 3.05%
Margin Leverage Elevated: reading 1.29
Discount Window Elevated: 1.8x median
Inflationary Heatmap: commodities vs bonds +17.8pp (3m)

VIX (1Y) 16.5

What this means today

Normal positioning - monitor indicators

Market sentiment is balanced. Maintain current portfolio allocation.

Read of the mood and stress gauges above. Informational only — not investment advice.

The companies we track

Valuation against their own history 67th percentile The median company is richer than its own past.

In rising price trends 20 of 64 The rest are falling or mixed.

Most of these companies ride the same AI cycle, so this is one reading of that trade, not many independent ones. See every company →

🧭 What Defines Market Mood

The readings behind the headline Market Mood score.

Sentiment Composite

31/100

Fear

VIX (Implied Volatility)

16.5

Normal

Tech Index Trend

RSI 38.2

MTD -1.6% · 50DMA ✅ · 200DMA ✅

Mag 7 Breadth

5/7

stocks above 50-day MA

AAPL MSFT GOOGL AMZN NVDA META TSLA

🛡️ What Defines the Composite Stress Gauge

Orange cards are actively signalling stress; green cards are monitored but currently calm.

MR-4Y Fourth Year Pattern ⚠️ Active

Historical correction after multi-year rally

3-year double-digit streak - 4th year historically sees correction

MR-JGB Yen Carry Unwind ⚠️ Active

JGB yield rise triggers carry trade unwind

JGB yield at 3.05% - Critical carry trade unwind risk

MR-LEVERAGE Margin Debt Momentum ⚠️ Active

Investor leverage stretched against its recent history

Margin debt momentum reading at 1.29 - Elevated leverage

MR-WINDOW Banking Liquidity Stress ⚠️ Active

Fed discount window usage elevated

Discount-window borrowing at 1.8x 52-week median - elevated

MR-HEATMAP Inflationary Heatmap ⚠️ Active

Commodities outperforming bonds — overheating

Commodities outperforming bonds by +17.8pp over 3m - overheating regime

MR-MARGIN Margin Debt Elevated ✅ Calm

Normalized leverage vs historical peak

MR-TOEHOLD Recession Switch ✅ Calm

Construction payrolls declining — recession signal

MR-CLIFF Shelter CPI Lag Convergence ✅ Calm

Shelter CPI YoY declining toward headline

MR-FED-TRAP Fed Policy Trap ✅ Calm

S&P at ATH while real economy weakens — Fed forced to ease

MR-STEEPENER Bear Steepener ✅ Calm

Yield curve steepening aggressively

MR-CREDIT Credit Stress Monitor ✅ Calm

High yield credit spread widening

📊 Margin Debt Momentum versus its recent history

MR-MARGIN

Contrarian indicator: how stretched investor leverage is against its recent history.

Current reading 1.29

Status ELEVATED

📊 Cycles

Where each industry cycle stands, and the tracked companies whose demand answers to it. A company's page reads its cycle as part of its context.

Technology Cycle Health: 40/100

Cycle Clock

Where each cycle sits (horizontal) and which way it is moving (vertical). Circles are the technology cycles; diamonds the power, minerals and robotics cycles.

Cycle Timeline

Toggle cycles on or off to compare them.

Each line is measured against its own history. A dashed tail marks a provisional reading.

Technology cycles

Cycle	Name	Current Phase	Evidence	Level / Momentum	Cycle Position (early → late)	Companies
C1	Semiconductor Production	SLOWDOWN	Semi Output YoY: +12.35%	1.11 / -0.0	70%	ADI AMAT AMBA, re-underwrite or risk AVT, re-underwrite or risk AZTA, re-underwrite or risk INTC, re-underwrite or risk KLAC LRCX +2 more
C2	AI Infrastructure CapEx	SATURATION	CapEx YoY: +97.7%	2.1 / 0.58	80%	NVDA, potential opportunity VRT, potential opportunity AMAT AMD APH APLD, re-underwrite or risk AVGO BE +9 more
C3	Consumer Product	SLOWDOWN	Device revenue YoY: +16.4%	0.38 / -0.06	70%	AAPL QCOM, re-underwrite or risk
C4	Physical & Commodity	EXPANSION	Real input prices: 216.52	0.02 / 0.8	45%	USAR, re-underwrite or risk
C5	Financial Conditions	CONTRACTION	Conditions index: -0.53	-0.25 / -0.39	90%	—
C6	Automotive & Mobility	CONTRACTION	Sales YoY: -3.44%	-0.38 / -0.51	90%	AEVA, re-underwrite or risk MBLY TSLA

Position measures progress through each cycle, not how favourable it is.

🔋 Power, minerals & robotics cycles

The physical markets behind the power & minerals and robotics & sensing companies we track. They sit on the same clock as the technology cycles, but they describe those companies' markets rather than the technology backdrop, so they are not part of Cycle Health.

Cycle	What it tracks	Current Phase	Evidence	Level / Momentum	Companies
E1	Uranium The uranium price after inflation. Reactor fuel is contracted years ahead, so the price moves in long waves that decide whether new mines are built.	EXPANSION	Price YoY: +17.4% (2026-07)	0.38 / 0.19	DNN UUUU
E2	Copper The copper price after inflation. Grids, power plants and data centres use copper in volume, and new mines are slow to open.	EXPANSION	Price YoY: +38.6% (2026-07)	1.8 / 1.4	FCX
E3	Power Demand Growth in US electricity output: the demand that power plants, grid equipment and fuel suppliers answer to.	EXPANSION	Output growth: +2.3% (2026-08)	1.05 / 0.56	BE CEG GEV VST
E4	Natural Gas The US natural gas price after inflation. Gas sets much of the country's power price and fuels many of the plants being built for data centres.	RECOVERY	Price YoY: -0.7% (2026-09)	-0.8 / 0.11	EQT
R1	Machinery Production Growth in US machinery output: the factory investment cycle that automation and robotics sales ride on.	EXPANSION	Output growth: +6.3% (2026-08)	1.18 / 0.14	CGNX ROK