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WTS

Watts Water Technologies, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Watch (61)
303.23
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
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1Y Target
$ ---
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3Y Target
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13.0%
10.3%
β–Ό
16.0%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🟑 Watch
61.9 /100
πŸ—οΈ Structural 21.9 /40
Quality Score: 46.8 Γ— 0.4
H-FORTRESS Fortress Balance Sheet

Net cash position with >10x interest coverage.

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

S-I2 Stack: S-I2

High-density rack cooling demand

W-BRAND Moat: W-BRAND

Pricing power via brand (Stable Margins)

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

🌊 Thematic 30.0 /30
Maximum Conviction (30.0 pts)
T4 Sovereign Resilience

Sovereign resilience & energy security

T5 Tailwind: T5

Millennial peak spending years

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-3 Cyclical Sensitivity

The company's classification in C2 and C5 cycles suggests vulnerability to broader industrial and infrastructure spending shifts, despite current 15.7% YoY revenue growth.

RISK-1 Structural EPS Deceleration

Analyst estimates indicate a significant slowdown in EPS growth from 13.0% in the current quarter to 7.4% in the next, and a full-year drop from 11.1% to 8.4% for the following year.

CAT-1 Earnings Execution Momentum

WTS has a track record of 4 consecutive earnings beats, suggesting management consistently outperforms conservative analyst estimates even during periods of decelerating growth.

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-2 Insider-Analyst Divergence

While analysts maintain a mean price target of $336.11 (11% upside), insiders have sold $14,884,086 in shares over the last six months with zero active buy features.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

⚑ Tactical 10.0 /30
βœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)

Overview

Watts Water Technologies is a global manufacturer of products that manage the safety, flow, and quality of water for residential and commercial infrastructure. The company specializes in backflow prevention, pressure regulation, and water conditioning systems.

Market Cap 10.11B
P/E (TTM) β€”
Rev Growth 0.2%
Gross Margin β€”
CEO: Mr. Robert J. Pagano Jr., C.M.A., C.P.A.
Sector: Industrials β€’ Specialty Industrial Machinery

Investment Thesis

🎯 Earnings Execution Momentum (4 consecutive beats)

While insider liquidations totaling $14.88M and a projected drop in EPS growth from 13.0% to 7.4% next quarter suggest a cooling cycle, Watts Water Technologies remains anchored by its high-margin industrial portfolio. The company’s 49.5% gross margin provides a significant cushion against operational volatility as it navigates C2 and C5 industrial cycles. Despite the expected annual EPS growth deceleration from 11.1% to 8.4% next year, the firm’s history of four consecutive earnings beats suggests a conservative internal guidance model that may continue to outperform analyst expectations.

Bear 275.00
β–Ό
Bull 389.00

πŸ•΅οΈ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-19 Sell 108.7K
2026-03-18 Sell 113.7K
2026-03-18 Sell 917.9K
2026-03-13 Sell 100.2K
2026-02-23 Sell 2.5M

πŸ”­ Quarterly Summary

Watts Water Technologies (WTS) demonstrated robust top-line performance with 15.7% YoY revenue growth and 2.2% sequential growth. The company maintains a strong profitability profile with a 49.5% gross margin and a 14.6% TTM FCF margin. Despite these results, management faces a transition period as analyst consensus sits at a 'hold' (2.67) despite a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat track record.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates