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AAPL

Apple Inc. Y IR

M2: Product Cycle Avoid (55)
260.43
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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17.3%
-5.5%
30.9%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🔴 Avoid
55.9 /100
🏗️ Structural 27.9 /40
Quality Score: 61.7 × 0.4
G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

W-SWITCH Moat: W-SWITCH

High cost to rip-and-replace

M2 Methodology: M2

Margin expansion on volume

S-P8 Stack: S-P8

End product integrator

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

C3 Cycle: C3

Replacement rate driven

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

CAT-1 Earnings Beat Momentum

A consistent track record of 4 consecutive earnings beats suggests potential for the company to exceed the decelerating analyst estimates.

RISK-1 EPS Growth Deceleration

Analyst estimates indicate a structural slowdown in EPS growth from 17.5% in the current quarter to 10.2% in the next quarter and 9.9% for the full year (+1y).

RISK-2 Insider-Analyst Sentiment Divergence

Bearish insider signals including net sales of 102,902 shares ($26.2M) conflict with the analyst consensus 'Buy' rating and $296.12 target mean.

Tactical 10.0 /30
✓ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM MR-MULTIPOLAR Supply Chain Risk

As an S-P8 hardware company, Apple is exposed to high-severity risks regarding undiversified supply chains for critical minerals like Gallium, Tungsten, and Rare Earths.

Overview

Apple designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, and wearables. It also provides a suite of related services, including cloud storage, digital content platforms, and payment solutions, integrated within its proprietary ecosystem.

Market Cap 3.83T
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth 0.2%
Gross Margin
CEO: Mr. Timothy D. Cook
Sector: Technology • Consumer Electronics

Investment Thesis

🎯 Consistent earnings beat momentum supported by a track record of 4 consecutive positive surprises.

While Apple faces a structural deceleration in earnings growth and significant supply chain exposure to critical minerals, the company's ability to maintain high margins through hardware cycles remains a primary driver of its valuation. Although insider selling of over $26 million suggests internal caution, the firm's track record of four consecutive earnings beats indicates a potential to outperform conservative forward estimates. The transition to AI-integrated hardware provides a replacement cycle catalyst, yet the sustainability of this growth is challenged by a projected drop in EPS growth to 9.9% for the next fiscal year as the company navigates the transition from pure hardware sales to AI-enabled services.

Bear 205.00
Bull 350.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-04-03 Sell 5.2M
2026-04-03 Sell 2.5M
2026-04-03 Sell 1.3M
2026-04-03 Sell 2.3M
2026-04-03 Sell 475.4K

🔭 Quarterly Summary

Apple reported a revenue growth of 15.7% YoY and a sequential growth of 40.3%, supported by a gross margin of 48.2% and an FCF margin of 28.3%. Performance is driven by hardware cycles (C2, C3) and the company's positioning as an AI beneficiary (AI-B), though management faces a projected deceleration in earnings momentum in the coming quarters.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates