โš ๏ธ This site is under heavy development. Feel free to take a look around but don't use it for real decisions.

IBP

Installed Building Products, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (21)
285.92
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
---
1Y Target
$ ---
---
3Y Target
$ ---
---
-4.7%
-25.0%
โ–ผ
16.0%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
21.9 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 11.9 /40
Quality Score: 21.7 ร— 0.4
S-I2 Stack: S-I2

High-density rack cooling demand

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

G-ALLOCATOR Governance: G-ALLOCATOR

M&A and buyback specialist

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 0.0 /30
Low Conviction (0.0 pts)
T7 Tailwind: T7

Outperforms as monetary policy loosens

C4 Cycle: C4

Supply/demand pricing power

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-3 Aggressive Insider Liquidation

Bearish insider sentiment is marked by the sale of 410,411 net shares valued at over $128 million, suggesting internal skepticism regarding the current valuation.

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

T4 Sovereign Resilience

Sovereign resilience & energy security

CAT-1 Fiscal Year Recovery Cycle

Analysts project a pivot back to growth in the +1y forecast with an 8.4% EPS increase, potentially signaling the end of the C5/C4 cyclical downturn.

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

RISK-1 Revenue Growth Deceleration

The company reported negative revenue growth of -0.4% YoY and a sequential decline of -4.0%, indicating a loss of momentum in core installation segments.

RISK-2 Near-Term EPS Contraction

Analyst forecasts indicate EPS growth will remain negative for the current quarter (-4.5%) and the next quarter (-3.5%), flagging a sustained earnings headwind.

โšก Tactical 10.0 /30
โœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-DECELERATING Growth Deceleration Rev -2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is slowing.

Overview

Installed Building Products is a leading installer of insulation and complementary building products for the residential and commercial construction markets across the United States. The company manages the entire installation process through a national network of over 210 branch locations, serving homebuilders and multi-family developers.

Market Cap 7.71B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth -0.0%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Jeffrey W. Edwards
Sector: Consumer Cyclical โ€ข Residential Construction

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ Fiscal Year Recovery Cycle (Projected 8.4% EPS growth)

Although aggressive insider liquidation totaling over $128 million suggests internal skepticism regarding the current valuation, the projected fiscal year recovery cycle offers a potential pivot from the current downturn. The business is currently navigating a period of compressed activity, evidenced by a sequential revenue decline of 4.0% and negative year-over-year growth. While near-term earnings are expected to contract by 4.5% in the current quarter, the company has maintained a free cash flow margin of 10.1%, providing a buffer against cyclical volatility. The investment case relies on the anticipated 8.4% EPS growth recovery in the following year to offset the current loss of momentum in core installation segments.

Bear 250.00
โ–ผ
Bull 340.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-11 Sell 413.6K
2026-03-11 Sell 598.6K
2026-03-04 Sell 125.6M
2025-12-01 Sell 536.8K
2025-11-10 Sell 1.2M

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

Installed Building Products (IBP) reported a slight revenue contraction of 0.4% year-over-year, with a more pronounced sequential decline of 4.0% quarter-over-quarter. Despite the revenue headwinds, the company maintained a gross margin of 35.0% and a trailing twelve-month free cash flow margin of 10.1%. Performance reflects a cooling in building activity, as evidenced by negative growth rates across both revenue and near-term earnings per share forecasts.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates