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FORM

FormFactor, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (39)
123.67
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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89.9%
39.1%
100.0%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🔴 Avoid
39.3 /100
🏗️ Structural 21.3 /40
Quality Score: 45.3 × 0.4
W-IP Moat: W-IP

Patent monopoly or trade secrets

S-P7 Stack: S-P7

Current supply chain constraint

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

H-FORTRESS Fortress Balance Sheet

Net cash position with >10x interest coverage.

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-3 INSIDER-EXIT: Aggressive Net Selling

Insider sentiment is bearish with a net reduction of 128,654 shares and total sell value of $9,857,489, signaling a lack of confidence in the current valuation premium.

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

CAT-1 AI-B: Advanced Packaging Expansion

As an S-P7 provider, FormFactor benefits from the transition to advanced packaging required for next-generation AI chips, supporting the current 13.6% YoY revenue growth.

RISK-4 FCF-MARGIN-STRESS: Low Cash Conversion

Despite 13.6% revenue growth, the TTM FCF margin is only 1.5%, creating a risk of margin compression if revenue growth slows or R&D costs for advanced packaging escalate.

C1 Cycle: C1

Inventory-driven volatility

RISK-1 V-OVERVALUED: Extreme Price-to-Target Divergence

The current stock price of $123.73 is 42.4% above the analyst mean target of $86.89, suggesting the market has priced in growth far beyond consensus expectations.

RISK-2 EPS-DECEL: Structural Growth Deceleration

Forward EPS growth is projected to decelerate sharply from +89.9% in the current quarter to +65.8% next quarter, reaching a low of +20.3% for the next fiscal year.

Tactical 0.0 /30
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

FormFactor manufactures high-performance test and measurement technologies, specifically probe cards and analytical probes used in the semiconductor manufacturing process. The company provides critical testing infrastructure for wafer-level validation of high-performance computing, mobile, and automotive integrated circuits.

Market Cap 9.65B
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth 0.1%
Gross Margin
CEO: Dr. Michael D. Slessor Ph.D.
Sector: Technology • Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Investment Thesis

🎯 Increased adoption of chiplet-based architectures requiring higher probe card intensity per wafer.

While FormFactor remains integrated into the advanced packaging workflows necessary for high-performance AI silicon, the equity is currently trading at a massive disconnect from fundamental valuation. Although the company achieved 13.6% YoY revenue growth, the stock price of $123.73 has surged 42.4% beyond the analyst mean target of $86.89. This premium is difficult to justify as EPS growth is expected to decelerate from 89.9% in the current quarter to just 20.3% next fiscal year. Furthermore, the lack of cash conversion, evidenced by a thin 1.5% FCF margin, suggests that the revenue gains are being offset by high operational intensity, a reality reflected in the $9.86 million of aggressive insider selling recorded over the last six months.

Bear 64.00
Bull 125.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-18 Sell 178.8K
2026-03-18 Sell 523.2K
2026-03-18 Sell 271.1K
2026-03-06 Sell 313K
2026-02-25 Sell 230K

🔭 Quarterly Summary

FormFactor (FORM) reported a revenue growth of 13.6% YoY and 6.2% sequentially, driven by its strategic position in advanced packaging (S-P7) and AI-related testing demand (AI-B). While the company maintained a gross margin of 42.2%, its FCF margin remains thin at 1.5%, indicating high operational or capital intensity. Management commentary highlights tailwinds from AI infrastructure (T1, T6) and cycle recovery (C1, C2), though the financial performance is currently trailing market valuation expectations.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates