โš ๏ธ This site is under heavy development. Feel free to take a look around but don't use it for real decisions.

AWI

Armstrong World Industries, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (22)
175.57
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
---
1Y Target
$ ---
---
3Y Target
$ ---
---
8.9%
5.4%
โ–ผ
14.5%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
22.0 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 12.0 /40
Quality Score: 22.1 ร— 0.4
M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

G-ALLOCATOR Governance: G-ALLOCATOR

M&A and buyback specialist

S-I3 Stack: S-I3

Sovereign supply chain hardening

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 0.0 /30
Low Conviction (0.0 pts)
T7 Tailwind: T7

Outperforms as monetary policy loosens

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T9 Tailwind: T9

Beneficiary of 2025/26 policy shifts

CAT-2 Analyst Price Target Realization

The mean analyst target of $208.80 implies a 19.0% upside, supported by a consistent track record of three earnings beats in the last four quarters.

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-3 Cyclical Sensitivity

Classification within C2 and C5 cycles exposes the company to broader macroeconomic shifts in commercial construction and infrastructure spending.

T4 Sovereign Resilience

Sovereign resilience & energy security

CAT-1 Insider Divergence

Bullish insider activity (F-INSIDER-DIVERGENCE) totaling nearly $100,000 in recent purchases signals management confidence despite sequential headwinds.

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

RISK-1 Sequential Revenue Contraction

The 8.7% QoQ revenue decline indicates potential softening in demand or unfavorable project timing within the infrastructure segment.

RISK-2 Near-Term EPS Deceleration

Current quarter EPS growth of 8.9% is lagging the projected annual growth rate of 12.0%, flagging a temporary slowdown in earnings momentum.

โšก Tactical 10.0 /30
โœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

Armstrong World Industries is a designer and manufacturer of ceiling and wall system solutions for use in commercial and residential settings. The company operates primarily through its Mineral Fiber and Architectural Specialties segments, maintaining a large-scale manufacturing footprint across North America.

Market Cap 7.57B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth 0.1%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Mark A. Hershey J.D.
Sector: Industrials โ€ข Building Products & Equipment

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ Analyst price target realization of $208.80, implying a 19.0% upside based on consistent earnings outperformance.

While the 8.7% sequential revenue contraction indicates a sharp deceleration in volume or unfavorable project timing, the company's underlying cash generation remains stable. Management's 12.0% annual EPS growth target appears ambitious given the current quarter's 8.9% growth rate, yet insider accumulation of 575 shares suggests internal confidence. Although the company remains tethered to the volatile C2 and C5 infrastructure cycles, the 39.8% gross margin provides a buffer against fluctuating input costs in the commercial construction sector.

Bear 185.00
โ–ผ
Bull 235.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-02 Buy 100K

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

Armstrong World Industries (AWI) reported year-over-year revenue growth of 5.6%, supported by a robust gross margin of 39.8% and a free cash flow margin of 15.2%. However, the company experienced a significant sequential revenue decline of 8.7%, suggesting seasonal volatility or slowing momentum in core infrastructure segments. Management's performance is characterized by an earnings beat track record in three of the last four quarters, though the current quarter's sequential performance indicates pressure on volume or pricing mix.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates