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ALPHA GALACTICA Qualys, Inc.

QLYS

Qualys, Inc. Y

M1: Compounder Avoid (56)
76.21
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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7.7%
6.0%
▼
9.6%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🔴 Avoid
56.2 /100
🏗️ Structural 28.2 /40
Quality Score: 62.4 × 0.4
G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

M1 Methodology: M1

High retention, Rule of 40+

W-SWITCH High Switching Costs

Mission-critical integration creates high barriers to exit.

S-D4 Stack: S-D4

Platformization trend

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
T7 Tailwind: T7

Outperforms as monetary policy loosens

AI-C AI: AI-C

SaaS/OpEx dependent, pricing power

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-3 Analyst Sentiment and Consensus Gap

Despite a mean target of $135.91, the consensus remains a 'Hold' (2.67). This suggests that while price targets are high, analysts are hesitant to recommend active buying, likely due to the moderate 10.1% revenue growth rate.

CAT-2 Mean Reversion to Analyst Targets

The current share price of $75.34 sits significantly below the target range floor of $95.35. Any stabilization in growth metrics could catalyze a move toward the mean target of $135.91.

RISK-1 Smart Money Conflict and Insider Selling

A sharp divergence exists between analyst price targets (implied +80.4% upside) and insider behavior. Insiders have sold 78,956 net shares ($11.03M value) over the last 6 months, signaling potential skepticism regarding the stock's near-term valuation or growth trajectory.

CAT-1 Earnings Execution Momentum

Qualys has a perfect 4-for-4 record of beating earnings estimates over the last year. Continued outperformance against the current $1.80 EPS estimate for the quarter could trigger a valuation re-rating.

RISK-2 EPS Growth Deceleration

Forward EPS growth is flagging as a headwind. The current year (0y) growth estimate of 4.4% represents a deceleration compared to the current quarter's 7.7% growth and the subsequent year's 8.2% projection.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

⚡ Tactical 10.0 /30
✓ Cycle Tailwind (+10)

Overview

Qualys provides a cloud-native platform for vulnerability management, detection, and response (VMDR). The company utilizes a single-agent architecture to deliver IT security and compliance solutions across on-premise, endpoint, and cloud environments.

Market Cap 2.73B
P/E (TTM) —
Rev Growth 0.1%
Gross Margin —
CEO: Mr. Sumedh S. Thakar
Sector: Technology • Software - Infrastructure

Investment Thesis

🎯 Mean reversion toward the $135.91 analyst price target triggered by continued earnings outperformance against the $1.80 quarterly EPS estimate.

While insiders have divested $11.03 million in shares over the last six months and EPS growth is expected to decelerate to 4.4% this year, Qualys continues to operate a high-efficiency financial model. The current valuation at $75.34 sits below the $95.35 analyst floor, creating a disconnect between market pricing and the company's 45.5% free cash flow margin. Although top-line revenue growth has flatlined at 10.1% YoY, the company's ability to exceed earnings estimates for four consecutive quarters suggests that operational discipline may eventually force a re-rating toward the mean analyst target of $135.91.

Bear 95.35
▼
Bull 170.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-16 Sell 6.5K
2026-02-06 Sell 62.6K
2026-02-06 Sell 50.7K
2026-02-06 Sell 262.9K
2026-02-06 Sell 471.2K

🔭 Quarterly Summary

Qualys (QLYS) reported revenue growth of 10.1% YoY and 3.2% sequentially, supported by a robust gross margin of 83.4%. The company continues to exhibit high cash flow efficiency with a TTM FCF margin of 45.5%. Management's operational execution is reflected in a consistent track record of four consecutive earnings beats, though top-line growth remains in the low double digits.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates

📰 News

2026-04-10 JFrog, Snowflake, and Qualys Shares Plummet, What You Need To Know - Yahoo Finance 2026-04-09 12 Best Practices for Securing AWS Cloud in 2026 - Qualys 2026-04-09 AI-Powered AppSec Scanning, How Enterprise Teams Scan Faster Without Losing Coverage - Qualys 2026-04-09 JFrog, Snowflake, and Qualys Shares Plummet, What You Need To Know - TradingView 2026-04-09 Qualys stock hits 52-week low at 81.83 USD - Investing.com 2026-04-07 Signals from the Cloud Security Forecast 2026: Cloud Risk Is Scaling through Design, Not Disruption - Qualys 2026-04-06 Why Every Enterprise Needs a Risk Operations Center (ROC) - Qualys 2026-04-01 CrackArmor Vulnerability 2026: AppArmor Root Access & Qualys Detection - Qualys 2026-03-23 Meet Agent Val: Closing the Validation Gap in Exposure Management at Machine Speed with Agentic AI - Qualys 2026-03-16 Top 10 Exploited Vulnerabilities in 2023: Insights from the Qualys Survey - Qualys 2026-02-05 8-K Results of Operations and Financial Condition 2025-11-04 8-K Results of Operations and Financial Condition 2025-08-05 8-K Results of Operations and Financial Condition 2025-06-16 8-K Amendments to Articles or Bylaws 2025-05-06 8-K Results of Operations and Financial Condition

📄 SEC Filings

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