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STRL

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Watch (64)
446.43
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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36.8%
21.5%
50.3%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🟡 Watch
64.8 /100
🏗️ Structural 30.8 /40
Quality Score: 69.0 × 0.4
S-I3 Stack: S-I3

Sovereign supply chain hardening

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

H-FORTRESS Fortress Balance Sheet

Net cash position with >10x interest coverage.

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

🌊 Thematic 24.0 /30
High Conviction (24.0 pts)
C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

CAT-1 Earnings Execution Momentum

A perfect track record of 4 beats and 0 misses over the last four quarters suggests conservative guidance and potential for future upside surprises.

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-1 Insider-Analyst Sentiment Divergence

Significant bearish insider signaling with $69.2M in total sell value and 163,820 net shares sold over 6 months conflicts with the strong_buy analyst consensus.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

RISK-2 EPS Growth Deceleration

Forward EPS growth is expected to slow from 23.5% (current year) to 14.5% (next year), indicating a potential peak in the current infrastructure cycle.

RISK-3 Cyclical Sensitivity

Exposure to C2 and C5 cycles makes the company vulnerable to shifts in infrastructure spending and macroeconomic cooling.

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

T4 Sovereign Resilience

Sovereign resilience & energy security

Tactical 10.0 /30
✓ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
S-SHOCK-DOWNSTREAM Downstream Project Delays

As an S-I3 infrastructure provider, STRL is highly sensitive to delays or cancellations in large-scale downstream projects, particularly in the AI-B data center segment.

V-ACCELERATING Growth Acceleration Rev +2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is accelerating.

Overview

Sterling Infrastructure is a specialized contractor providing E-Infrastructure, Transportation, and Building solutions across the United States. The firm focuses on large-scale site development for data centers and power projects, alongside traditional civil infrastructure like highways and residential foundations.

Market Cap 13.69B
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth 0.5%
Gross Margin
CEO: Mr. Joseph A. Cutillo
Sector: Industrials • Engineering & Construction

Investment Thesis

🎯 Consistent earnings execution evidenced by 4 consecutive quarterly beats

While significant insider selling totaling $69,233,395 suggests management caution regarding the current cycle, Sterling Infrastructure continues to expand through its focus on physical AI-B data center assets. The company’s 51.5% YoY revenue growth reflects a period of high demand for irreproducible site development services, though a projected deceleration in EPS growth to 14.5% next year indicates a maturing trajectory. Investors must monitor the 9.7% sequential growth rate, which remains vulnerable to capital-intensive project delays despite a consistent record of 4 consecutive earnings beats.

Bear 482.00
Bull 505.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-27 Sell 22.7M
2026-03-16 Sell 511.5K
2026-03-11 Sell 21.4M
2026-03-11 Sell 19.8M
2026-03-09 Sell 1.7M

🔭 Quarterly Summary

Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) reported robust quarterly performance with revenue growth of 51.5% YoY and 9.7% sequentially. The company maintained a gross margin of 21.7% and a strong TTM FCF margin of 14.6%. Results were driven by its S-I3 infrastructure positioning and AI-B tailwinds, specifically benefiting from data center and heavy civil construction demand (T1, T6, T10). Management commentary highlights consistent execution, reflected in a track record of four consecutive earnings beats.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates