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DCI

Donaldson Company, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (22)
88.66
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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5.8%
4.0%
โ–ผ
9.1%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
22.2 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 12.2 /40
Quality Score: 22.5 ร— 0.4
M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

S-I3 Stack: S-I3

Sovereign supply chain hardening

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

W-SWITCH Moat: W-SWITCH

High cost to rip-and-replace

H-CANNIBAL Share Cannibal

Shares outstanding decreased by 3.1% YoY.

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 0.0 /30
Low Conviction (0.0 pts)
T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C4 Cycle: C4

Supply/demand pricing power

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-3 Margin Conversion Gap

A significant gap exists between the 33.5% gross margin and the 9.3% FCF margin, indicating high operational or capital costs that may limit shareholder returns.

T3 Tailwind: T3

Manufacturing sector expansion tailwind

CAT-2 Earnings Beat Momentum

The company has a track record of 3 beats out of the last 4 quarters, suggesting potential for upside surprises against the current consensus hold rating.

RISK-1 Sequential Growth Contraction

Revenue declined -4.2% on a sequential basis, signaling a loss of momentum despite the 3.0% YoY increase.

CAT-1 Near-Term EPS Acceleration

Analyst forecasts predict EPS growth will accelerate from 5.8% in the current quarter to 13.2% in the next quarter (+1q).

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-2 Bearish Insider Signals

Insiders have sold a net 40,966 shares over the last 6 months with a total sell value of $3,624,603, suggesting internal skepticism regarding current valuation.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

T4 Tailwind: T4

Sovereign resilience & energy security

โšก Tactical 10.0 /30
โœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

Donaldson Company manufactures advanced filtration systems and parts for the industrial, engine, and life sciences markets. The company operates through a global network to provide air and liquid filtration technologies that protect equipment and processes.

Market Cap 10.27B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth 0.0%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Richard B. Lewis
Sector: Industrials โ€ข Specialty Industrial Machinery

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ Projected EPS growth acceleration to 13.2% in the next quarter.

Although Donaldson faces a sequential revenue contraction of -4.2% and significant insider selling totaling $3.6 million, the company maintains a high-switching-cost moat within its recurring aftermarket business. This industrial infrastructure exposure supports a 3.0% year-over-year revenue increase despite near-term headwinds in industrial demand. While capital intensity has compressed the free cash flow margin to 9.3%, the anticipated acceleration in earnings per share suggests a transition from cyclical cooling to operational efficiency in the coming quarters.

Bear 77.00
โ–ผ
Bull 123.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-27 Sell 1M
2026-03-27 Sell 730.7K
2025-12-10 Sell 51.8K
2025-12-08 Sell 1.2M
2025-12-08 Sell 607.5K

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

Donaldson Company (DCI) reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 3.0%, supported by its S-I3 industrial positioning and infrastructure cycle exposure (C2, C4). However, the company experienced a sequential revenue contraction of -4.2% quarter-over-quarter, indicating a potential near-term slowdown. Gross margins remain resilient at 33.5%, though the Free Cash Flow (FCF) margin of 9.3% suggests significant capital intensity or working capital requirements relative to profitability. Management commentary highlights a mix of industrial tailwinds (T3, T4, T6, T10) against a backdrop of moderating sequential demand.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates