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TXN

Texas Instruments Incorporated Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (11)
214.69
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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6.7%
1.6%
18.0%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🔴 Avoid
11.1 /100
🏗️ Structural 11.1 /40
Quality Score: 19.7 × 0.4
G-ALLOCATOR Governance: G-ALLOCATOR

M&A and buyback specialist

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

S-P5 Stack: S-P5

Design + own fabs

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

🌊 Thematic 0.0 /30
Low Conviction (0.0 pts)
T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

RISK-3 Execution and Predictability Risk

An inconsistent earnings track record (2 beats, 2 misses) reduces confidence in management's ability to meet the aggressive 19.7% forward EPS growth target.

CAT-2 AI Position Realization

Classification as AI-B with tailwinds T1 and T10 suggests TXN is positioned to capture high-margin AI infrastructure demand.

RISK-1 Sequential Revenue Contraction

The 6.7% QoQ revenue decline suggests a loss of momentum or inventory digestion issues despite the 10.4% YoY growth.

CAT-1 EPS Growth Acceleration

Projected EPS growth scales from 6.6% in the current quarter to 11.1% in the next, providing a potential valuation re-rating if targets are met.

C1 Cycle: C1

Inventory-driven volatility

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-2 Insider-Analyst Sentiment Divergence

Bearish insider signals (total sell value of $28,304,270) conflict with analyst target mean of $223.77, suggesting potential overvaluation at current levels.

C6 Cycle: C6

Credit-dependent demand

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

Tactical 0.0 /30
S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM Critical Mineral Supply Chain Concentration

As an S-P5 hardware manufacturer, TXN faces high severity MR-MULTIPOLAR risks related to undiversified supplies of critical minerals like Gallium and Tungsten.

V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

Texas Instruments is a global semiconductor designer and manufacturer specializing in analog and embedded processing chips. The company serves diverse end markets including industrial, automotive, and personal electronics through a massive, vertically integrated manufacturing footprint.

Market Cap 195.50B
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth 0.1%
Gross Margin
CEO: Mr. Haviv Ilan
Sector: Technology • Semiconductors

Investment Thesis

🎯 Successful execution of the 19.7% forward EPS growth target driven by AI infrastructure demand

Although Texas Instruments is contending with a 6.7% sequential revenue contraction and bearish insider sentiment totaling $28.3 million in sales, the company is attempting to pivot toward high-margin AI infrastructure. The investment thesis hinges on an anticipated acceleration in EPS growth, which is projected to climb from 6.6% in the current quarter to 19.7% next year. This transition is supported by a stable 55.9% gross margin, yet the company must overcome an inconsistent earnings track record and significant supply chain concentration risks involving critical minerals to validate its current valuation.

Bear 160.00
Bull 270.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-02-18 Sell 1.5M
2026-02-12 Sell 1.5M
2026-02-12 Sell 2.3M
2026-02-12 Sell 3M
2026-02-12 Sell 9.7M

🔭 Quarterly Summary

Texas Instruments (TXN) reported a year-over-year revenue growth of 10.4%, though it faced a sequential revenue contraction of 6.7%. The company maintained a gross margin of 55.9% and a trailing twelve-month free cash flow (FCF) margin of 14.7%. Performance reflects a transition period with mixed signals across its analog and embedded processing segments, as evidenced by the divergence between annual growth and quarterly deceleration.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates