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TEAM

Atlassian Corporation Y

M1: Compounder Avoid (23)
57.16
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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37.4%
19.6%
59.8%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🔴 Avoid
23.4 /100
🏗️ Structural 13.4 /40
Quality Score: 23.4 × 0.4
S-D3 Stack: S-D3

B2B apps, outcome-based pricing

M1 Methodology: M1

High retention, Rule of 40+

W-SWITCH High Switching Costs

Mission-critical integration creates high barriers to exit.

G-FOUNDER Governance: G-FOUNDER

Founder-led with high ownership

🌊 Thematic 0.0 /30
Low Conviction (0.0 pts)
T7 Tailwind: T7

Outperforms as monetary policy loosens

AI-C AI: AI-C

SaaS/OpEx dependent, pricing power

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-3 AI Knowledge-Middleman Disruption

Operating in the S-D3 stack as an AI-C provider, Atlassian faces 'Reskilling Trap' risks; LLMs can now perform documentation, task synthesis, and project tracking at near-zero marginal cost, potentially commoditizing TEAM's core collaboration tools.

RISK-1 Extreme Insider-Analyst Divergence

A major conflict exists between market analysts and company insiders; while 31 analysts maintain a 'Buy' consensus with a 194.9% implied upside, insiders have sold 321,461 net shares totaling $39,249,774 in the last 6 months.

CAT-1 Earnings Beat Momentum

TEAM maintains a perfect 4/4 earnings beat record over the last year. A significant beat against the current $1.33 EPS estimate could force a short-term re-rating despite insider selling.

RISK-2 Structural EPS Deceleration

Forward-looking EPS estimates show a clear downward trend in growth velocity, dropping from 37.4% (0q) to 22.1% (+1q) and eventually 16.0% (+1y), suggesting the company's high-growth phase is maturing.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

Tactical 10.0 /30
✓ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

Atlassian provides software tools designed to help teams organize, discuss, and complete shared work. The company's platform supports project management, content creation, and service desk operations primarily through a cloud-based delivery model.

Market Cap 15.07B
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth 0.2%
Gross Margin
CEO: Mr. Michael Cannon-Brookes
Sector: Technology • Software - Application

Investment Thesis

🎯 A significant earnings beat exceeding the $1.33 EPS estimate to trigger a short-term valuation re-rating.

Although Atlassian faces a projected collapse in EPS growth velocity from 37.4% to 16.0% over the next year and significant insider liquidation totaling $39.2 million, the company continues to report high-margin revenue expansion. The core tension lies between its historical dominance in project tracking and the emerging threat of generative AI agents that can automate the very documentation and synthesis tasks that Jira and Confluence facilitate. While the 194.9% implied analyst upside suggests massive undervaluation, the divergence from insider sentiment indicates that those closest to the business may see structural headwinds that the market has yet to fully price in.

Bear 80.68
Bull 480.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-02-20 Sell 2.3K
2026-02-20 Sell 660.83
2026-02-20 Sell 2.3K
2026-02-20 Sell 167.10
2026-02-20 Sell 12.5K

🔭 Quarterly Summary

Atlassian (TEAM) demonstrated strong top-line momentum with revenue growth of 23.3% YoY and 10.7% sequentially, maintaining a premium gross margin of 85.0%. The company's free cash flow (FCF) margin remains healthy at 22.2% TTM. Management's commentary centers on the AI-C position, focusing on integrating generative AI across the Jira and Confluence ecosystems to drive seat expansion and cloud migration, though the transition continues to face macro-related headwinds in seat growth.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates