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TER

Teradyne, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Watch (64)
367.86
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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180.9%
173.3%
204.0%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🟡 Watch
64.0 /100
🏗️ Structural 40.0 /40
Quality Score: 94.1 × 0.4
W-IP Moat: W-IP

Patent monopoly or trade secrets

S-P7 Stack: S-P7

Current supply chain constraint

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

H-FORTRESS Fortress Balance Sheet

Net cash position with >10x interest coverage.

H-CANNIBAL Share Cannibal

Shares outstanding decreased by 3.5% YoY.

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

🌊 Thematic 24.0 /30
High Conviction (24.0 pts)
C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-3 Insider Sentiment Divergence

Insiders have sold a net value of $1,841,767 over the last 6 months despite the 43.9% YoY revenue growth, signaling management skepticism regarding the sustainability of current price levels.

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

T11 Tailwind: T11

Humanoid robotics and physical AI agents

CAT-1 Earnings Momentum Squeeze

With a perfect 4/4 earnings beat record and current quarter EPS growth projected at 180.9%, a significant beat could force a revision of the $315.76 analyst mean target upward.

C1 Cycle: C1

Inventory-driven volatility

RISK-1 Valuation Disconnect (V-OVERVALUED)

The current share price of $367.67 exceeds the analyst mean target of $315.76 by 16.4%. This premium suggests the market is pricing in growth beyond the consensus of 17 analysts, creating risk if AI tailwinds normalize.

RISK-2 Growth Deceleration Profile

While 0y EPS growth is robust at 58.1%, the +1y forecast indicates a sharp deceleration to 31.9%. This slowing momentum may trigger multiple compression as the 'AI-B' cycle matures.

Tactical 0.0 /30
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

V-ACCELERATING Growth Acceleration Rev +2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is accelerating.

S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM Multipolar Supply Chain Risk (MR-MULTIPOLAR)

As an S-P7 semiconductor hardware provider, Teradyne is exposed to critical mineral supply chain constraints. Undiversified sourcing of specialized components for test equipment poses a high structural risk in a multipolar trade environment.

Overview

Teradyne designs and manufactures automated test equipment for semiconductors, circuit boards, and wireless modules. The company also operates an industrial automation segment focused on collaborative and autonomous mobile robotics.

Market Cap 57.61B
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth 0.4%
Gross Margin
CEO: Mr. Gregory Stephen Smith
Sector: Technology • Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Investment Thesis

🎯 Earnings Momentum Squeeze

Although the stock trades at a 16.4% premium to the analyst mean target of $315.76, Teradyne's 43.9% year-over-year revenue expansion reflects an aggressive shift in semiconductor testing requirements. The transition to complex chip architectures has driven a 40.8% sequential revenue increase, placing the firm in a critical hardware role within the AI infrastructure stack. However, net insider sales of $1.84 million and a projected deceleration in EPS growth from 58.1% this year to 31.9% next year suggest that the current price of $367.67 may be discounting a normalization of the current cycle.

Bear 250.00
Bull 415.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-04-09 Sell 5.5K
2026-04-07 Sell 195.1K
2026-04-03 Sell 73.3K
2026-03-06 Sell 187K
2026-02-27 Sell 262.3K

🔭 Quarterly Summary

Teradyne (TER) delivered a robust performance with revenue growing 43.9% YoY and 40.8% sequentially, signaling a sharp recovery in semiconductor test demand. Gross margins remained healthy at 57.2%, while the company maintained a 14.1% FCF margin. Management commentary highlights a transition into a high-growth phase (AI-B position) driven by complex semiconductor architectures requiring advanced testing solutions, particularly in the S-P7 stack position.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates