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ANET

Arista Networks, Inc. Y

M2: Product Cycle Avoid (54)
147.30
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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24.1%
21.5%
β–Ό
30.8%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

πŸ”΄ Avoid
54.8 /100
πŸ—οΈ Structural 31.8 /40
Quality Score: 69.6 Γ— 0.4
H-FORTRESS Fortress Balance Sheet

Net cash position with >10x interest coverage.

W-IP Intellectual Property

Proprietary technology or patents protect margins.

M2 Methodology: M2

Margin expansion on volume

W-SWITCH Moat: W-SWITCH

High cost to rip-and-replace

W-BRAND Brand Power

Premium pricing power driven by brand equity.

G-FOUNDER Governance: G-FOUNDER

Founder-led with high ownership

S-P8 Stack: S-P8

End product integrator

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

CAT-2 AI Infrastructure Scaling

Continued deployment of large-scale AI clusters by hyperscalers (T6, T10 tailwinds) serves as a direct catalyst for Arista's high-bandwidth Ethernet switching solutions, potentially offsetting the projected EPS deceleration.

RISK-1 Smart Money Divergence

A significant conflict exists between analyst targets (+20.2% upside) and insider behavior. Insiders have been net sellers of 416,096 shares ($55.36M) over the last 6 months, suggesting management may view the stock as fully valued despite the 'Strong Buy' consensus.

C1 Cycle: C1

Inventory-driven volatility

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-2 EPS Growth Deceleration

Analyst estimates forecast a deceleration in EPS growth from +24.1% in the current quarter to +17.1% in the next quarter. This 700bps slowdown suggests a potential cooling of the hyper-growth phase or increasingly difficult year-over-year comparisons.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

CAT-1 Earnings Beat Momentum

Arista has a perfect earnings track record over the last four quarters (4 beats, 0 misses). Given the current strong buy consensus and AI-B positioning, a fifth consecutive beat could trigger a short squeeze or target price revisions.

⚑ Tactical 5.0 /30
βœ“ Analyst Momentum (+5)
S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM Upstream Supply Chain Vulnerability

As an S-P8 hardware provider, Arista is exposed to MR-MULTIPOLAR risks involving critical minerals and high-end semiconductor components required for its switching platforms. Any disruption in the undiversified supply of specialized materials could impact gross margins.

V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

Arista Networks provides cloud networking solutions for large-scale data centers and campus environments through its software-driven switching and routing platforms. The company's core value proposition is built upon its Extensible Operating System (EOS), which enables programmable network automation and high-bandwidth connectivity for hyperscale cloud providers.

Market Cap 185.56B
P/E (TTM) β€”
Rev Growth 0.3%
Gross Margin β€”
CEO: Ms. Jayshree V. Ullal
Sector: Technology β€’ Computer Hardware

Investment Thesis

🎯 The continued deployment of large-scale AI clusters by hyperscalers driving demand for high-bandwidth Ethernet switching solutions.

While significant insider selling totaling $55.36M over the last six months signals that management may perceive the stock as fully valued, Arista Networks continues to benefit from the capital-intensive build-out of AI-specific infrastructure. The company has maintained a perfect earnings beat record over the last four quarters, though forward-looking estimates suggest a transition period as EPS growth is expected to cool from 24.1% to 17.1%. Although supply chain vulnerabilities regarding critical minerals and specialized semiconductors persist, the company's role as a primary provider of high-bandwidth Ethernet switching for hyperscalers remains a central pillar of the current AI infrastructure cycle.

Bear 140.00
β–Ό
Bull 220.00

πŸ•΅οΈ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-04-03 Sell 488.7K
2026-04-03 Sell 468.1K
2026-04-03 Sell 50.8K
2026-03-19 Sell 984.6K
2026-03-19 Sell 1.9M

πŸ”­ Quarterly Summary

Arista Networks (ANET) demonstrated strong financial performance with revenue growth of 28.9% YoY and 7.8% sequentially, driven by robust demand for high-performance networking in data center environments. The company maintains a high-tier profitability profile with a 62.9% gross margin and an exceptional 47.2% TTM Free Cash Flow margin. Management commentary highlights the company's strategic positioning as an AI-B beneficiary, focusing on the transition to AI-driven networking architectures and high-speed switching, though recent insider activity suggests a more cautious internal valuation of current equity levels.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates