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ORCL

Oracle Corporation Y

M4: Digital Utility Watch (61)
138.17
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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15.5%
5.9%
19.4%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🟡 Watch
61.4 /100
🏗️ Structural 33.4 /40
Quality Score: 83.6 × 0.4
S-D1-M Stack: S-D1-M

Massive OCF, diverse revenue

M4 Methodology: M4

OCF vs CapEx analysis

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

W-SWITCH High Switching Costs

Mission-critical integration creates high barriers to exit.

G-FOUNDER Governance: G-FOUNDER

Founder-led with high ownership

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
AI-A AI: AI-A

Strong AI strategy beneficiary

T8 Tailwind: T8

Deep value with margin inflection

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-3 Negative FCF Margin Pressure

The company reported a TTM Free Cash Flow margin of -38.6%. This negative cash generation profile during a period of high revenue growth suggests extreme capital requirements or operational inefficiencies.

CAT-2 Analyst Target Realization

With a mean price target of $246.46 and a high-end target of $400.00, any shift in institutional sentiment toward the analyst consensus could trigger a significant re-rating.

RISK-1 Smart Money Conflict: Insider/Analyst Divergence

A sharp divergence exists between market analysts and company insiders. While analysts project a +78.5% upside with a mean target of $246.46, insiders have been net sellers of 191,346 shares totaling $47.46M in the last 6 months.

CAT-1 AI Infrastructure Demand (S-D1-M/AI-A)

Oracle's classification as an AI-enabled infrastructure provider (AI-A) and its position in the S-D1-M stack suggest it is a primary beneficiary of current AI scaling cycles (C2, C5).

RISK-2 EPS Growth Deceleration

Forward EPS estimates show a significant slowdown in momentum, dropping from 23.6% growth in the current year (0y) to just 7.0% in the next fiscal year (+1y).

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

Tactical 10.0 /30
✓ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

V-ACCELERATING Growth Acceleration Rev +2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is accelerating.

Overview

Oracle Corporation is a global provider of enterprise software, database technology, and cloud infrastructure services. The company specializes in high-performance database management systems and cloud-based applications for enterprise resource planning and supply chain management.

Market Cap 397.15B
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth 0.2%
Gross Margin
CEO: Mr. Michael D. Sicilia
Sector: Technology • Software - Infrastructure

Investment Thesis

🎯 Realization of the $246.46 mean analyst price target triggered by sustained demand for AI-enabled infrastructure.

While Oracle faces a significant cash flow deficit and heavy insider selling, its role as an AI-enabled infrastructure provider has sustained top-line expansion. The firm is currently navigating a transition where massive capital outlays for data centers have suppressed short-term liquidity in exchange for capturing AI scaling cycles. Although analysts maintain an optimistic mean price target of $246.46, the investment case is complicated by a sharp projected deceleration in earnings growth and a disconnect between institutional sentiment and internal executive liquidations.

Bear 155.00
Bull 400.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-02-11 Sell 1.6M
2026-01-16 Sell 6.8M
2025-12-29 Sell 3M
2025-12-23 Sell 437.1K
2025-12-23 Sell 1.9M

🔭 Quarterly Summary

Oracle demonstrated strong top-line momentum with revenue growth of 21.7% YoY and 7.0% sequentially, supported by its strategic position in AI infrastructure (AI-A) and database management (S-D1-M). While gross margins remain healthy at 64.6%, the company is currently operating with a significantly negative TTM Free Cash Flow margin of -38.6%, likely due to aggressive capital expenditures required for AI-related scaling. Management performance aligns with cycles C2 and C5, benefiting from tailwinds in cloud and data infrastructure (T6, T8, T10).

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates