⚠️ This site is under heavy development. Feel free to take a look around but don't use it for real decisions.

FSLR

First Solar, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (59)
203.40
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
---
1Y Target
$ ---
---
3Y Target
$ ---
---
46.9%
24.1%
103.6%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🔴 Avoid
59.5 /100
🏗️ Structural 25.5 /40
Quality Score: 55.8 × 0.4
G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

W-IRREPRODUCIBLE Moat: W-IRREPRODUCIBLE

Physical scarcity, regulatory permission, or living data moat

S-I1-BYPASS Stack: S-I1-BYPASS

On-site power generation

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

H-FORTRESS Fortress Balance Sheet

Net cash position with >10x interest coverage.

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

🌊 Thematic 24.0 /30
High Conviction (24.0 pts)
C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T9 Tailwind: T9

Beneficiary of 2025/26 policy shifts

C4 Cycle: C4

Supply/demand pricing power

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-3 Earnings Execution Deficit

The company has failed to meet earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters, highlighting significant volatility in operational forecasting and execution.

T4 Sovereign Resilience

Sovereign resilience & energy security

CAT-1 AI Infrastructure Power Demand

As an AI-B classified entity with T10 tailwinds, FSLR is positioned to address the 10-20% data center power shortfall through 2028, potentially commanding higher pricing for immediate capacity.

RISK-1 Smart Money Conflict

A sharp divergence exists between analyst optimism (+21.5% upside) and insider behavior, with net sales of 75,989 shares ($14.9M) over the last 6 months.

RISK-2 EPS Growth Deceleration

Analyst estimates indicate a structural deceleration in EPS growth, dropping from +46.9% in the current quarter to +29.3% in the subsequent quarter.

Tactical 10.0 /30
✓ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

First Solar is a leading manufacturer of thin-film photovoltaic (PV) solar modules utilizing proprietary cadmium telluride (CdTe) technology. The company provides utility-scale solar energy solutions and is the largest solar manufacturer headquartered in the United States.

Market Cap 21.86B
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth 0.1%
Gross Margin
CEO: Mr. Mark R. Widmar
Sector: Technology • Solar

Investment Thesis

🎯 AI Infrastructure Power Demand

While First Solar faces credibility hurdles following three earnings misses in the last four quarters and $14.9M in recent insider selling, the company's control over irreproducible physical assets makes it a primary beneficiary of the AI power crunch. The projected 10-20% data center power shortfall through 2028 creates a scenario where First Solar's immediate capacity commands premium pricing. Although revenue growth of 11.2% YoY is modest, the company’s S-I1-BYPASS classification suggests it can bypass traditional silicon supply chain volatility to serve the massive electricity requirements of AI infrastructure.

Bear 150.00
Bull 313.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-17 Sell 388.9K
2026-03-17 Sell 78.7K
2026-03-17 Sell 35.9K
2026-03-17 Sell 7K
2026-03-17 Sell 19.2K

🔭 Quarterly Summary

First Solar (FSLR) demonstrated resilient financial performance with revenue growth of 11.2% YoY and 5.5% QoQ. The company maintains a robust gross margin of 39.5% and a strong FCF margin of 22.8%, indicating efficient operations within the S-I1-BYPASS stack position. Management commentary highlights the company's role as an AI-B beneficiary, though execution remains a concern given the recent track record of missing earnings estimates.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates