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IT

Gartner, Inc. Y

M1: Compounder Avoid (53)
143.71
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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-2.5%
-22.8%
β–Ό
3.5%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

πŸ”΄ Avoid
53.1 /100
πŸ—οΈ Structural 25.1 /40
Quality Score: 54.8 Γ— 0.4
G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

S-D3 Stack: S-D3

B2B apps, outcome-based pricing

M1 Methodology: M1

High retention, Rule of 40+

W-SWITCH High Switching Costs

Mission-critical integration creates high barriers to exit.

H-CANNIBAL Share Cannibal

Shares outstanding decreased by 8.4% YoY.

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
T7 Tailwind: T7

Outperforms as monetary policy loosens

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-3 Analyst Sentiment Divergence

Despite a target mean of $188.62 suggesting 31.7% upside, the consensus rating is a 'Hold' (2.67), indicating professional skepticism regarding the company's ability to hit those targets given current growth rates.

CAT-2 Cyclical Sequential Rebound

The 15.0% QoQ sequential growth indicates strong execution in the latest period, which may signal a faster-than-expected recovery in enterprise research spending.

RISK-1 AI Disruption (Reskilling Trap)

As an AI-R (AI-Risk) classified knowledge middleman, Gartner's core value proposition of research and advisory is vulnerable to LLMs that can synthesize information at near-zero marginal cost, potentially commoditizing legacy consulting models.

CAT-1 Earnings Beat Momentum

Gartner has a 4-0 track record of beating earnings estimates over the last four quarters, suggesting a pattern of conservative guidance that could lead to another upside surprise.

RISK-2 EPS Growth Deceleration

Forward EPS growth is flagging as a major headwind, with 0q growth estimated at -2.5% and full-year 0y growth at -0.1%, representing a sharp deceleration from historical performance.

AI-R AI: AI-R

Existential threat from AI substitution (includes reskilling value traps)

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

⚑ Tactical 10.0 /30
βœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-DECELERATING Growth Deceleration Rev -2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is slowing.

Overview

Gartner Inc. is a global research and advisory firm providing actionable insights and proprietary tools for executives across technology, finance, and human resources. The company operates through three primary segments: Research, Consulting, and Conferences.

Market Cap 10.36B
P/E (TTM) β€”
Rev Growth 0.0%
Gross Margin β€”
CEO: Mr. Eugene A. Hall
Sector: Technology β€’ Information Technology Services

Investment Thesis

🎯 Consistent execution of earnings beats over the last four quarters suggesting conservative guidance and potential for upside surprises during a cyclical recovery.

Although Gartner's role as a knowledge middleman faces deflationary pressure from generative AI tools capable of synthesizing information at near-zero marginal cost, the company managed a 15.0% sequential revenue increase in the most recent period. Professional skepticism remains high, as evidenced by a consensus 'Hold' rating (2.67), due to an anticipated period of stagnation where annual EPS growth is projected to be essentially flat at -0.1%. While the company has a consistent 4-0 track record of beating earnings estimates, it must now navigate a transition from legacy advisory models to a landscape where its core research value proposition is increasingly challenged by automated synthesis.

Bear 140.00
β–Ό
Bull 255.00

πŸ•΅οΈ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value

πŸ”­ Quarterly Summary

Gartner (IT) reported modest YoY revenue growth of 2.2%, though sequential growth showed a significant 15.0% increase, likely reflecting seasonal strength in its conference and research segments. The company maintains a high gross margin of 67.3% and a healthy FCF margin of 18.1%. Despite a perfect track record of four consecutive earnings beats over the last year, management commentary and financial data indicate a period of stagnation, with current year (0y) EPS growth projected to be essentially flat at -0.1%.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates