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AMAT

Applied Materials, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (43)
399.53
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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11.9%
10.0%
โ–ผ
17.2%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
43.2 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 25.2 /40
Quality Score: 59.9 ร— 0.4
W-IP Moat: W-IP

Patent monopoly or trade secrets

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

S-P6 Stack: S-P6

Semiconductor toolmaker monopoly

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

H-FORTRESS Fortress Balance Sheet

Net cash position with >10x interest coverage.

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

CAT-2 Consistent Earnings Execution

A track record of 4 consecutive earnings beats provides high confidence in management's ability to exceed the $2.68 current quarter estimate.

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-3 Valuation and Price Target Compression

The implied upside of 4.1% based on the target mean of $420.31 suggests the stock may be reaching a near-term valuation ceiling.

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

CAT-1 Accelerating EPS Growth Profile

EPS growth is forecasted to ramp from 12.0% in the current quarter to 26.2% in the next fiscal year, suggesting a powerful earnings recovery.

C1 Cycle: C1

Inventory-driven volatility

RISK-1 Year-over-Year Revenue Contraction

Revenue growth is currently at -2.1% YoY, signaling a period of deceleration or cyclical pressure in the semiconductor equipment market.

RISK-2 Bearish Insider Divergence

Net insider sales of 20,612 shares totaling $6,529,096 over the last 6 months conflict with the consensus 'buy' rating from analysts.

โšก Tactical 0.0 /30
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

Applied Materials provides the materials engineering solutions used to produce virtually every new chip and advanced display in the world. The company specializes in equipment for atomic layer deposition, chemical vapor deposition, and physical vapor deposition required for semiconductor fabrication.

Market Cap 317.04B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth -0.0%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Gary E. Dickerson
Sector: Technology โ€ข Semiconductor Equipment & Materials

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ Accelerating EPS growth from 12.0% to 26.2% over the next fiscal year.

While Applied Materials is grappling with a -2.1% year-over-year revenue contraction and $6.5 million in net insider selling, the business is beginning to show signs of a cyclical trough. The company's role in the AI build-out is defined by physical, irreproducible assets; it provides the essential hardware required to manufacture high-bandwidth memory and advanced logic chips, protecting it from the deflationary pressures affecting AI service providers. Although current top-line growth has flatlined, a sequential recovery of 3.1% suggests that the transition toward a higher-growth phase is underway, supported by the intensive capital requirements of next-generation gate-all-around transistor architectures.

Bear 280.00
โ–ผ
Bull 500.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-02-27 Sell 979.3K
2026-02-24 Sell 925.4K
2026-02-24 Sell 571K
2026-02-24 Sell 202.5K
2026-02-18 Sell 1.8M

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

Applied Materials (AMAT) delivered a mixed quarterly performance characterized by a -2.1% YoY revenue contraction, although sequential growth showed a recovery of 3.1%. The company maintains strong profitability with a gross margin of 49.0% and a TTM free cash flow margin of 21.9%. Management commentary and classification (S-P6, AI-B) highlight the company's role as a key equipment provider in the AI infrastructure build-out, supported by tailwinds T1, T6, and T10.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates