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NFLX

Netflix, Inc. Y IR

M5: Network Effect Avoid (54)
103.05
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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15.3%
8.9%
19.5%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🔴 Avoid
54.2 /100
🏗️ Structural 26.2 /40
Quality Score: 57.4 × 0.4
W-NETWORK Network Effects

Value of the platform increases with each new user.

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

W-SCALE Moat: W-SCALE

Economies of scale / Low cost

M5 Methodology: M5

Winner-take-most dynamics

S-D5 Stack: S-D5

Network effects aggregator

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
T5 Tailwind: T5

Millennial peak spending years

AI-C AI: AI-C

SaaS/OpEx dependent, pricing power

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

C3 Cycle: C3

Replacement rate driven

RISK-3 Valuation Gap and Target Variance

While the mean target is $113.79, the wide target range ($80.00 - $151.40) and recent insider selling suggest high uncertainty regarding the current $102.41 valuation.

CAT-2 FCF Margin Sustainability

Maintaining a 20.9% FCF margin allows for aggressive content acquisition or share buybacks to offset insider selling pressure.

RISK-1 Aggressive Insider Liquidation

Insiders have sold 1,487,794 net shares totaling $136,253,412 in the last 6 months, signaling a bearish internal outlook that conflicts with the analyst consensus buy rating.

CAT-1 Earnings Execution Momentum

A track record of 3 beats out of the last 4 quarters indicates operational efficiency and potential for further positive surprises in upcoming quarterly reports.

RISK-2 Forward EPS Growth Deceleration

Analyst forecasts indicate EPS growth will decelerate from 26.1% (0y) to 20.8% (+1y), suggesting the current growth cycle (C3) may be peaking.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

Tactical 10.0 /30
✓ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

Netflix is a global digital media provider operating a subscription-based streaming platform for films, television series, and interactive games. The company utilizes a proprietary content delivery network and machine learning algorithms to manage user retention and optimize large-scale content expenditures.

Market Cap 436.96B
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth 0.2%
Gross Margin
CEO: Mr. Theodore A. Sarandos
Sector: Communication Services • Entertainment

Investment Thesis

🎯 Sustained FCF margin of 20.9% enabling aggressive content acquisition to offset decelerating organic subscriber growth.

While aggressive insider liquidation totaling $136,253,412 over the last six months suggests internal skepticism regarding current valuation, the company's operational execution remains visible through three earnings beats in the last four quarters. Although forward EPS growth is projected to decelerate from 26.1% to 20.8%, the maintenance of a 20.9% FCF margin provides necessary capital for content reinvestment. The investment case is currently caught between the friction of maturing subscriber growth and the high-margin potential of its emerging advertising tier.

Bear 80.00
Bull 151.40

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-04-03 Sell 2.8M
2026-04-02 Sell 14.4M
2026-04-02 Sell 23.7M
2026-04-02 Sell 2M
2026-03-03 Sell 2.8M

🔭 Quarterly Summary

Netflix (NFLX) demonstrated robust financial performance with revenue growth of 17.6% YoY and 4.7% sequentially. The company maintains a strong gross margin of 45.9% and a significant free cash flow (FCF) margin of 20.9% TTM. Performance is driven by its S-D5 digital media position and M5 subscription methodology, leveraging AI-C capabilities for content personalization. Management commentary indicates a focus on scaling the platform through secular trends (C5) and growth cycles (C3), though the 17.6% growth rate is being monitored against future EPS projections.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates