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TENB

Tenable Holdings, Inc. Y

M1: Compounder Avoid (25)
16.03
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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13.5%
11.1%
โ–ผ
16.7%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
25.0 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 15.0 /40
Quality Score: 39.6 ร— 0.4
G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

M1 Methodology: M1

High retention, Rule of 40+

W-SWITCH High Switching Costs

Mission-critical integration creates high barriers to exit.

S-D4 Stack: S-D4

Platformization trend

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 0.0 /30
Low Conviction (0.0 pts)
T7 Tailwind: T7

Outperforms as monetary policy loosens

AI-C AI: AI-C

SaaS/OpEx dependent, pricing power

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-3 Insider Liquidation Trend

Net shares decreased by 99,476 over the last 6 months, signaling a lack of confidence in current price levels despite analyst optimism.

CAT-2 Valuation Re-rating (F-UPSIDE)

Current price of $15.87 sits significantly below the target mean of $30.05, offering a potential +89.3% upside if market sentiment aligns with analysts.

RISK-1 Smart Money Conflict

Extreme divergence between analyst sentiment (consensus buy, +89.3% upside) and insider behavior (bearish, $2.88M in sells vs $357k in buys).

CAT-1 Earnings Execution Momentum

A perfect 4-quarter track record of earnings beats suggests conservative guidance and potential for further positive surprises.

RISK-2 Forward EPS Deceleration

Projected earnings growth is expected to slow from 17.7% (0y) to 11.0% (+1y), suggesting a cooling of the core growth engine.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

โšก Tactical 10.0 /30
โœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-DECELERATING Growth Deceleration Rev -2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is slowing.

Overview

Tenable is a cybersecurity firm specializing in exposure management and vulnerability assessment. It provides the Nessus platform to help organizations identify and prioritize security risks across cloud, IT, and operational technology environments.

Market Cap 1.91B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth 0.1%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Stephen A. Vintz CPA
Sector: Technology โ€ข Software - Infrastructure

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ Valuation Re-rating (F-UPSIDE) driven by the 89.3% gap between current price and analyst mean targets.

Although heavy insider liquidation totaling $2.88M and a projected deceleration in EPS growth from 17.7% to 11.0% signal internal caution, Tenable remains a high-margin cash generator. The company has maintained operational discipline, evidenced by four consecutive earnings beats and a robust TTM FCF margin of 25.0%. While the market has discounted the stock to $15.87, the bull case rests on a significant valuation re-rating toward the $30.05 analyst mean target, assuming the company can stabilize its growth engine despite net insider share reductions of 99,476 over the last six months.

Bear 19.00
โ–ผ
Bull 45.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-02-13 Buy 99.8K
2026-02-09 Buy 258K
2025-12-17 Sell 2.9M
2025-10-20 Sell 28.4K

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

Tenable (TENB) delivered a solid quarter characterized by 10.5% YoY revenue growth and 3.2% sequential growth. The company maintains high operational efficiency with a gross margin of 78.8% and a robust TTM Free Cash Flow (FCF) margin of 25.0%. Management has demonstrated consistent execution, achieving four consecutive earnings beats over the last four quarters, though growth rates show signs of moderation compared to historical peaks.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates