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ZS

Zscaler, Inc. Y

M1: Compounder Avoid (50)
118.00
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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20.3%
17.9%
โ–ผ
27.4%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
50.4 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 22.4 /40
Quality Score: 56.0 ร— 0.4
M1 Methodology: M1

High retention, Rule of 40+

W-SWITCH High Switching Costs

Mission-critical integration creates high barriers to exit.

G-FOUNDER Governance: G-FOUNDER

Founder-led with high ownership

S-D4 Stack: S-D4

Platformization trend

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
T7 Tailwind: T7

Outperforms as monetary policy loosens

AI-C AI: AI-C

SaaS/OpEx dependent, pricing power

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-1 Smart Money Conflict

A significant divergence exists between analyst sentiment and internal management actions; while 45 analysts project a 99.5% upside to a $232.90 mean target, insiders have been net sellers of 46,927 shares ($8.8M value) over the last 6 months.

CAT-1 Earnings Beat Momentum

Zscaler maintains a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat record. With the current quarter EPS estimate at $1.01, another beat could trigger a short-term price correction toward analyst targets.

RISK-2 EPS Growth Deceleration

Forward-looking EPS estimates indicate a structural slowdown, with growth expected to drop from 22.8% this year to 13.9% next year, potentially compressing the current valuation multiple.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

โšก Tactical 10.0 /30
โœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

S-SHOCK-DOWNSTREAM Enterprise Spend Sensitivity

As an S-D4 software provider, ZS is highly sensitive to downstream enterprise security budget cycles (C5, C2); any contraction in IT spending would immediately impact the 3.5% sequential growth floor.

Overview

Zscaler is a cloud-native security company that pioneered the Zero Trust Exchange platform to secure enterprise communications. The company replaces legacy network security hardware with a distributed cloud architecture that inspects traffic at the edge for user-to-app and app-to-app connectivity.

Market Cap 18.98B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth 0.3%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Jagtar Singh Chaudhry
Sector: Technology โ€ข Software - Infrastructure

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ Consistent earnings beat momentum (4/4 record) potentially triggering a price correction toward the $232.90 analyst mean target.

While internal management has been net sellers of 46,927 shares ($8.8M value) over the last six months, Zscaler continues to demonstrate high-margin cash generation through its Zero Trust architecture. The company maintains a 29.1% FCF margin despite a moderating sequential revenue growth floor of 3.5%. As an S-D4 provider, its performance is sensitive to downstream enterprise security budget cycles, where it currently holds a perfect record of four consecutive earnings beats. The investment story centers on whether this execution can overcome a projected EPS growth deceleration from 22.8% to 13.9% in the upcoming fiscal year, even as the stock trades at a significant discount to its $232.90 mean analyst target.

Bear 155.35
โ–ผ
Bull 335.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-19 Sell 232.5K
2026-03-19 Sell 321.5K
2026-03-19 Sell 27.2K
2026-03-18 Sell 303.9K
2026-03-18 Sell 263.4K

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

Zscaler (ZS) reported year-over-year revenue growth of 25.9%, reaching a TTM Free Cash Flow margin of 29.1%. While the company maintains a high gross margin of 76.5%, sequential revenue growth showed signs of moderation at 3.5%. Management's execution remains consistent with its S-D4 stack position, focusing on Zero Trust architecture and AI-driven security (AI-C), resulting in a perfect track record of four consecutive earnings beats.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates