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ALGM

Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (45)
37.48
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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173.1%
160.0%
217.1%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🔴 Avoid
45.2 /100
🏗️ Structural 27.2 /40
Quality Score: 69.9 × 0.4
S-P5 Stack: S-P5

Design + own fabs

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

W-SWITCH Moat: W-SWITCH

High cost to rip-and-replace

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
T11 Tailwind: T11

Humanoid robotics and physical AI agents

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

CAT-2 Valuation Gap Closure

The current price of $37.93 sits significantly below the analyst mean target of $45.83, providing a potential 20.8% upside if market sentiment aligns with the strong buy consensus.

RISK-1 Smart Money Divergence

A significant conflict exists between analyst optimism (+20.8% upside, Strong Buy consensus) and insider behavior, where net selling reached $1,652,327 over the last 6 months.

C1 Cycle: C1

Inventory-driven volatility

CAT-1 Earnings Execution Momentum

ALGM maintains a 100% beat rate over the last four quarters; a continuation of this trend in the upcoming $0.16-$0.19 EPS window could trigger a short-term valuation re-rating.

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-2 EPS Growth Deceleration

Forward EPS growth is projected to decelerate structurally from +173.1% in the current quarter to +82.2% for the full year (+1y), suggesting a peak-growth inflection point has passed.

C6 Cycle: C6

Credit-dependent demand

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

Tactical 0.0 /30
S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM Critical Mineral Supply Chain Vulnerability

As an S-P5 hardware provider of analog and sensor ICs, ALGM is exposed to MR-MULTIPOLAR risks involving Gallium and Tungsten supply chains essential for high-performance semiconductor fabrication.

Overview

Allegro MicroSystems is a global leader in sensor integrated circuits (ICs) and application-specific analog power ICs. The firm specializes in magnetic sensor and power management solutions required for automotive electrification, industrial automation, and data center energy efficiency.

Market Cap 6.95B
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth 0.3%
Gross Margin
CEO: Mr. Michael C. Doogue
Sector: Technology • Semiconductors

Investment Thesis

🎯 Valuation gap closure to the $45.83 mean analyst target driven by a continuation of the 100% earnings beat rate.

While Allegro MicroSystems maintains a perfect earnings execution record over the last four quarters, the investment thesis is complicated by a sharp divergence between analyst optimism and internal insider behavior. The company has successfully integrated into AI power architectures, contributing to a 28.9% YoY revenue increase, but structural headwinds are emerging. Net insider selling totaling $1,652,327 over the last six months suggests that those closest to the operations may see limited room for further valuation expansion. Although the stock trades at $37.93—a significant discount to the $45.83 mean target—the transition from triple-digit EPS growth to a more normalized trajectory indicates the easiest gains in the electrification cycle have likely been captured.

Bear 42.00
Bull 51.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-03 Sell 340.4K
2026-03-03 Sell 90.9K
2026-02-18 Sell 384.8K
2025-12-12 Sell 836.2K

🔭 Quarterly Summary

Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) demonstrated robust operational performance with revenue growing 28.9% YoY and 7.0% sequentially. The company maintained a gross margin of 46.7% and a free cash flow margin of 14.3%. Performance was driven by strength in automotive and industrial sensor segments (C1, C6) and increasing integration into AI power architectures (AI-B). Management commentary emphasized a consistent execution track record, evidenced by four consecutive earnings beats.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates