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CRM

Salesforce, Inc. Y IR

M1: Compounder Avoid (38)
166.92
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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21.2%
19.4%
โ–ผ
28.7%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
38.4 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 20.0 /40
Quality Score: 50.0 ร— 0.4
H-CANNIBAL Share Cannibal

Shares outstanding decreased by 3.4% YoY.

S-D3 Stack: S-D3

B2B apps, outcome-based pricing

S-POWER-CONSTRAINED AI Scaling Power Constraints

As an AI-C provider, CRM's ability to scale compute-intensive Agentic AI features is indirectly constrained by the power availability of its underlying hyperscaler partners.

G-FOUNDER Governance: G-FOUNDER

Founder-led with high ownership

W-SWITCH High Switching Costs

Mission-critical integration creates high barriers to exit.

M1 Methodology: M1

High retention, Rule of 40+

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
T7 Tailwind: T7

Outperforms as monetary policy loosens

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

CAT-1 Earnings Beat Momentum

Salesforce has achieved 4 beats and 0 misses in the last four quarters. Continued outperformance against the current $3.13 EPS estimate could trigger a momentum rally despite bearish insider signals.

AI-C AI: AI-C

SaaS/OpEx dependent, pricing power

RISK-1 Smart Money Conflict

A significant divergence exists between analyst sentiment and insider actions. While 53 analysts maintain a 'buy' consensus with a $273.85 mean target (+67% upside), insiders are net sellers of 35,478 shares, with $32.5M in total sell value versus $26.5M in buys.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

RISK-2 EPS Growth Deceleration

Analyst estimates indicate a structural slowdown in profitability. EPS growth is forecasted to drop from +21.2% in the current quarter to +11.4% in the next quarter, with full-year growth reaching only +5.4%.

RISK-3 AI Reskilling Trap

As an AI-C software provider (S-D3), CRM faces existential risk if its value proposition relies on complex manual workflows or certifications. LLMs can perform these 'middleman' knowledge tasks at near-zero marginal cost, potentially disrupting the legacy SaaS model.

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

โšก Tactical 10.0 /30
โœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Market Risk Multiplier: 0.8x (Elevated Risk (>40))

Overview

Salesforce is a global provider of customer relationship management (CRM) software, offering a suite of cloud-based applications for sales, service, and marketing. The company integrates data across enterprise silos through its platform to facilitate automated workflows and AI-driven customer insights.

Market Cap 154.57B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth 0.1%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Marc R. Benioff
Sector: Technology โ€ข Software - Application

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ Earnings Beat Momentum (4/4 beats in the last year)

Although Salesforce faces a potential AI Reskilling Trap where generative models may automate the manual tasks currently performed within its software, the company remains a cash flow powerhouse. While revenue grew 12.1% YoY, investors must weigh the 34.7% FCF margin against a projected deceleration in EPS growth from 21.2% to 5.4% for the full year. The divergence between a 67% analyst upside and $32.5M in insider selling suggests that smart money is skeptical of the company's ability to maintain its legacy seat-based pricing model in an era of automated knowledge work.

Bear 190.00
โ–ผ
Bull 475.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-19 Buy 95.5K
2026-03-19 Buy 404.7K
2026-03-18 Buy 500.2K
2026-01-15 Sell 929.3K
2025-12-18 Buy 500.7K

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

Salesforce (CRM) demonstrated resilient financial performance with revenue growth of 12.1% YoY and 9.2% sequentially, supported by a robust gross margin of 77.6%. The company maintains a high free cash flow (FCF) margin of 34.7%, reflecting strong operational efficiency. Management commentary focuses on the AI-C positioning, leveraging its software stack (S-D3) to integrate AI capabilities. Despite a perfect track record of four consecutive earnings beats, the transition toward AI-driven models is occurring alongside a visible deceleration in bottom-line growth projections.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates