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SNPS

Synopsys, Inc. Y

M1: Compounder Avoid (45)
392.11
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
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1Y Target
$ ---
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3Y Target
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-14.2%
-14.7%
โ–ผ
-10.1%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
45.4 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 27.4 /40
Quality Score: 70.4 ร— 0.4
S-P1 Stack: S-P1

Strategic design tool monopoly

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

M1 Methodology: M1

High retention, Rule of 40+

H-DILUTION Serial Diluter

Shares outstanding increased by 23.8% YoY.

W-SWITCH High Switching Costs

Mission-critical integration creates high barriers to exit.

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-3 Margin Compression Sensitivity

With a high gross margin of 73.5%, the company is sensitive to any shifts in revenue mix or pricing pressure in the EDA segment, especially as 0q earnings estimates show a range as low as $3.13.

CAT-2 Earnings Beat Momentum

Despite one recent miss, the company has a track record of 3 beats in the last 4 quarters; a beat on the current $3.15 EPS estimate could trigger a short-term reversal of bearish insider signals.

RISK-1 Smart Money Divergence

A significant conflict exists between analyst sentiment and internal management actions; while 25 analysts maintain a 'buy' consensus with a $537.75 mean target (+36.7% upside), insiders have been net sellers of $1,945,036 in shares over the last 6 months.

CAT-1 AI Design Cycle Acceleration

The company's AI-B positioning and S-P1 stack status are expected to drive a recovery in EPS growth to +18.0% in the +1y period, supported by a target price range reaching up to $650.00.

C1 Cycle: C1

Inventory-driven volatility

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-2 Near-Term EPS Deceleration

Forward EPS growth for the current quarter (0q) is forecasted at -14.2%, signaling a sharp deceleration compared to the historical 65.5% YoY revenue growth rate.

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

โšก Tactical 0.0 /30
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

V-ACCELERATING Growth Acceleration Rev +2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is accelerating.

Overview

Synopsys is a global leader in electronic design automation (EDA) software and semiconductor intellectual property (IP). The company provides the critical tools and building blocks necessary for engineers to design, verify, and manufacture complex integrated circuits and software-defined electronic systems.

Market Cap 75.14B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth 0.7%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Sassine Ghazi
Sector: Technology โ€ข Software - Infrastructure

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ AI Design Cycle Acceleration driving a projected recovery to 18.0% EPS growth in the +1y period.

Although Synopsys faces a projected -14.2% earnings contraction in the current quarter and notable insider selling totaling $1,945,036 over the last six months, the company remains the primary toll-gate for the global semiconductor design cycle. While some may view the recent earnings miss and insider exits as a signal of peak valuation, the structural demand for custom AI silicon is forcing a massive design migration. This transition is reflected in a staggering 65.5% YoY revenue growth, even as the bottom line temporarily decelerates during a transition period. The investment thesis rests on the company's ability to convert this top-line expansion into an 18.0% EPS recovery in the coming year as design starts for next-generation AI accelerators move toward production.

Bear 425.00
โ–ผ
Bull 650.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-01-13 Sell 132.5K
2026-01-08 Sell 127.5K
2025-12-22 Sell 481K
2025-12-22 Sell 1.2M

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

Synopsys (SNPS) delivered a strong quarter with 65.5% YoY revenue growth and a 6.8% sequential increase, maintaining a robust gross margin of 73.5%. The performance was supported by its S-P1 position in the EDA/IP stack, benefiting from AI-driven design cycles (AI-B). Free Cash Flow (FCF) margin remains healthy at 28.5% TTM. Despite strong top-line metrics, management is navigating a transition period as reflected in near-term earnings volatility.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates