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ADI

Analog Devices, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (50)
350.13
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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56.7%
55.7%
63.2%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🔴 Avoid
50.2 /100
🏗️ Structural 26.2 /40
Quality Score: 57.6 × 0.4
G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

S-P5 Stack: S-P5

Design + own fabs

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

W-SWITCH Moat: W-SWITCH

High cost to rip-and-replace

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

🌊 Thematic 24.0 /30
High Conviction (24.0 pts)
T11 Tailwind: T11

Humanoid robotics and physical AI agents

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

RISK-1 Structural EPS Growth Deceleration

Analyst forecasts indicate a significant downward trend in earnings growth, falling from +56.7% in the current quarter to +45.0% next quarter, and ultimately dropping to +13.9% for the +1y period, signaling a potential cyclical peak.

CAT-1 Earnings Execution Premium

A perfect 4/4 earnings beat track record suggests conservative management guidance and the potential for a positive surprise in the upcoming $2.90 EPS print (0q).

C1 Cycle: C1

Inventory-driven volatility

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-2 Insider Liquidity Signal

Bearish insider activity with net sales of 118,675 shares totaling $35,392,532 over the last 6 months suggests a lack of conviction in near-term valuation upside at current levels.

C6 Cycle: C6

Credit-dependent demand

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

Tactical 0.0 /30
S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM Critical Mineral Supply Chain Fragility

As an S-P5 hardware manufacturer, ADI faces high severity MR-MULTIPOLAR risk due to reliance on critical minerals like Gallium and Tungsten, where supply chain concentration poses existential risks to production continuity.

V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

Analog Devices is a global leader in the design and manufacture of high-performance analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing integrated circuits. The company provides essential technology for data conversion, power management, and thermal sensing across industrial, automotive, and communications sectors.

Market Cap 170.94B
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth 0.3%
Gross Margin
CEO: Mr. Vincent T. Roche
Sector: Technology • Semiconductors

Investment Thesis

🎯 Consistent earnings execution premium and a perfect 4/4 track record of quarterly beats.

Although structural EPS growth is expected to decelerate from 56.7% in the current quarter to 13.9% over the next twelve months, the company continues to maintain high-margin operations. Bearish insider activity, characterized by $35.4 million in net sales over the last six months, suggests a lack of conviction in further valuation expansion at current levels. However, the firm's ability to generate significant cash remains intact, supported by a 38.8% free cash flow margin that allows for capital flexibility even as the semiconductor cycle cools. The investment case rests on whether the company's hardware moat can withstand supply chain fragility regarding critical minerals like Gallium and Tungsten.

Bear 295.00
Bull 430.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-04-03 Sell 3.2M
2026-03-12 Sell 193.3K
2026-03-12 Sell 172K
2026-03-12 Sell 280.4K
2026-03-12 Sell 167.9K

🔭 Quarterly Summary

Analog Devices (ADI) demonstrated robust financial performance with year-over-year revenue growth of 30.4% and a sequential increase of 2.7%. The company maintains high profitability levels, reporting a gross margin of 64.7% and a significant free cash flow (FCF) margin of 38.8% for the trailing twelve months. Management's execution is reflected in a consistent track record of four consecutive earnings beats, positioning the firm strongly within the S-P5 semiconductor hardware stack.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates