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DNN

Denison Mines Corp. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (58)
3.56
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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82.5%
-200.0%
β–Ό
-175.4%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

πŸ”΄ Avoid
58.8 /100
πŸ—οΈ Structural 30.8 /40
Quality Score: 69.0 Γ— 0.4
S-I1-SECURE Stack: S-I1-SECURE

Nuclear/PPA contracts

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

W-IRREPRODUCIBLE Moat: W-IRREPRODUCIBLE

Physical scarcity, regulatory permission, or living data moat

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

C4 Cycle: C4

Supply/demand pricing power

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

CAT-1 Significant Analyst Upside

Current price of $3.58 sits well below the mean target of $4.92, representing a 37.6% implied upside and a strong buy consensus from covering analysts.

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-1 Structural EPS Deceleration

Analyst estimates project a sharp decline in EPS growth from +82.5% in the current quarter to -187.7% in the subsequent quarter, suggesting a structural rather than temporary earnings headwind.

RISK-2 Extreme Negative Free Cash Flow

The TTM FCF margin of -2412.4% indicates massive capital expenditure and operational burn relative to revenue, creating high dependency on external financing or uranium price spikes.

T4 Tailwind: T4

Sovereign resilience & energy security

T9 Tailwind: T9

Beneficiary of 2025/26 policy shifts

⚑ Tactical 10.0 /30
βœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM Uranium Supply Chain Concentration

As a developer of uranium (critical mineral), DNN is subject to MR-MULTIPOLAR risks where geopolitical shifts can disrupt supply chains or project financing for nuclear-grade materials.

V-ACCELERATING Growth Acceleration Rev +2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is accelerating.

V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

F-POWER-PREMIUM AI Nuclear Power Premium

As hyperscalers face 10-20% power shortfalls, uranium producers like DNN may benefit from the 'time-to-power' premium as nuclear energy is prioritized for 24/7 carbon-free AI data center baseload.

Overview

Denison Mines is a uranium exploration and development company primarily focused on the Athabasca Basin region of northern Saskatchewan, Canada. The company manages a portfolio of high-grade uranium assets, including its flagship Wheeler River project, which is designed to utilize In-Situ Recovery (ISR) mining technology.

Market Cap 3.22B
P/E (TTM) β€”
Rev Growth 0.0%
Gross Margin β€”
CEO: Mr. David Daniel Cates C.A., C.P.A., MAcc
Sector: Energy β€’ Uranium

Investment Thesis

🎯 AI Nuclear Power Premium

While Denison Mines faces a projected structural EPS deceleration to -187.7% in the coming quarter and operates with a severely negative free cash flow margin of -2412.4%, the company serves as a high-conviction play on the physical scarcity of nuclear fuel. The investment thesis rests on the 'time-to-power' premium as AI hyperscalers seek 24/7 carbon-free baseload energy to mitigate 10-20% power shortfalls. Although current operations show 0.0% gross margins because the company has not yet reached steady-state production, the 37.6% implied upside to analyst price targets reflects the irreproducible value of its uranium reserves in an increasingly supply-constrained market.

Bear 4.18
β–Ό
Bull 5.65

πŸ•΅οΈ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value

πŸ”­ Quarterly Summary

Denison Mines (DNN) reported a sequential revenue growth of 16.9% and a modest 4.4% YoY increase. However, the company's financial profile remains typical of a development-stage entity, characterized by a 0.0% gross margin and a significantly negative FCF margin of -2412.4%. Management's focus remains on project advancement and exploration, as the company has yet to transition into a steady-state production phase, evidenced by the lack of current gross profit.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates