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DY

Dycom Industries, Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Avoid (52)
393.30
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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49.3%
41.2%
โ–ผ
56.8%
3.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
52.4 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 18.4 /40
Quality Score: 43.0 ร— 0.4
S-I1-GRID Stack: S-I1-GRID

Traditional grid, slow returns

M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 24.0 /30
High Conviction (24.0 pts)
C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

CAT-1 Infrastructure Cycle Tailwinds

Continued federal and private investment in grid modernization (S-I1-GRID) and fiber deployment provides a multi-year runway for revenue, as evidenced by the 34.4% YoY growth.

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-1 EPS Growth Deceleration

Analyst estimates project a sharp drop in EPS growth from 49.3% in the current quarter to 23.0% in the next, signaling a transition from hyper-growth to a more moderate cyclical phase.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

RISK-2 Insider-Analyst Sentiment Divergence

While 11 analysts maintain a 'strong buy' consensus with a $467.91 target, insiders have sold $1,259,785 in shares over 6 months, suggesting management may view the current valuation as full.

T4 Sovereign Resilience

Sovereign resilience & energy security

T9 Tailwind: T9

Beneficiary of 2025/26 policy shifts

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

RISK-3 Sequential Growth Stagnation

Revenue growth of only 0.4% QoQ despite high YoY figures suggests that the company may be hitting operational capacity limits or facing project timing delays.

โšก Tactical 10.0 /30
โœ“ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
S-SHOCK-DOWNSTREAM Hyperscale Capex Retrenchment

As an AI-B infrastructure provider, Dycom is sensitive to downstream spending shifts by major telecom and data center operators; a reduction in their capex would directly impact DY's backlog.

Overview

Dycom Industries provides specialized contracting services, including engineering, construction, and maintenance, for telecommunications and electric utility providers. The company operates as a critical labor and scale provider for the physical deployment of fiber networks and grid modernization projects.

Market Cap 11.78B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth 0.3%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Daniel S. Peyovich
Sector: Industrials โ€ข Engineering & Construction

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ Multi-year federal and private sector grid modernization and fiber-to-the-home deployment cycles

While Dycom faces a projected halving of its EPS growth from 49.3% to 23.0% next quarter and recent insider selling totaling $1.26 million, the company remains a primary beneficiary of the multi-year grid modernization cycle. Although sequential revenue growth has flatlined at 0.4%, the 34.4% year-over-year expansion indicates that the demand for fiber and power infrastructure remains elevated. Investors must weigh the potential for operational capacity limits against a record of four consecutive earnings beats.

Bear 415.00
โ–ผ
Bull 510.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-01-09 Sell 1.3M

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

Dycom Industries (DY) reported strong year-over-year revenue growth of 34.4%, though sequential growth stalled at 0.4%, indicating a potential plateau in project velocity. The company maintained a gross margin of 18.2% and an FCF margin of 7.2%. Management performance remains consistent with a track record of four consecutive earnings beats, supported by high demand for grid and telecommunications infrastructure (S-I1-GRID) as part of the broader AI-driven buildout.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates