โš ๏ธ This site is under heavy development. Feel free to take a look around but don't use it for real decisions.

MTSI

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. Y

M2: Product Cycle Avoid (39)
258.08
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
$ ---
---
1Y Target
$ ---
---
3Y Target
$ ---
---
26.5%
25.9%
โ–ผ
31.8%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

๐Ÿ”ด Avoid
39.9 /100
๐Ÿ—๏ธ Structural 21.9 /40
Quality Score: 56.7 ร— 0.4
G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

W-BRAND Brand Power

Premium pricing power driven by brand equity.

M2 Methodology: M2

Margin expansion on volume

W-IP Moat: W-IP

Patent monopoly or trade secrets

S-P3 Stack: S-P3

High scalability, low CapEx

๐ŸŒŠ Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
CAT-1 Earnings Beat Momentum

A perfect 4/4 earnings beat record suggests conservative guidance; another beat against the $1.07 current quarter estimate could trigger a short-term price squeeze despite valuation concerns.

T4 Tailwind: T4

Sovereign resilience & energy security

C1 Cycle: C1

Inventory-driven volatility

RISK-1 V-OVERVALUED: Price/Target Divergence

The current market price of $261.77 has surpassed the analyst mean target of $261.14 (0.2% premium), suggesting the stock is trading at a valuation ceiling relative to consensus expectations.

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-3 EPS Growth Deceleration

Projected EPS growth is slowing from 28.9% (0y) to 24.6% (+1y), flagging potential margin compression or a cooling of the current demand cycle.

RISK-2 Aggressive Insider Liquidation

Bearish insider sentiment is high, with a net reduction of 1,478,390 shares and total sell value exceeding $308M, signaling management's potential lack of confidence in further near-term upside.

โšก Tactical 0.0 /30
V-ACCELERATING Growth Acceleration Rev +2.0%

Revenue growth trajectory is accelerating.

S-SHOCK-UPSTREAM MR-MULTIPOLAR Mineral Dependency

As an S-P3 hardware provider, MTSI is exposed to high-severity supply chain risks regarding critical minerals like Gallium and Tungsten necessary for semiconductor manufacturing.

V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductor solutions for data centers, telecommunications, and industrial markets. The firm specializes in radio frequency, microwave, and optical technologies that facilitate high-speed connectivity across the S-P3 hardware stack.

Market Cap 19.36B
P/E (TTM) โ€”
Rev Growth 0.2%
Gross Margin โ€”
CEO: Mr. Stephen G. Daly
Sector: Technology โ€ข Semiconductors

Investment Thesis

๐ŸŽฏ A fifth consecutive earnings beat against the $1.07 current quarter estimate which could trigger a technical short squeeze despite the valuation ceiling.

While MACOM faces intense scrutiny due to aggressive insider selling totaling over $308M and a market price that has surpassed its $261.14 analyst target, the underlying demand for its AI-B hardware remains active. Although projected EPS growth is expected to slow to 24.6% in the coming year, the company's 24.5% year-over-year revenue growth proves that its IP-protected components are currently essential for high-speed infrastructure. Investors must weigh the firm's perfect quarterly beat record against the high-severity risk of mineral dependencies for Gallium and Tungsten, which could disrupt manufacturing should geopolitical tensions shift.

Bear 200.00
โ–ผ
Bull 300.00

๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-03-02 Sell 233.4K
2026-03-02 Sell 72.5K
2026-03-02 Sell 777.5K
2026-03-02 Sell 1.2M
2026-03-02 Sell 1M

๐Ÿ”ญ Quarterly Summary

MACOM Technology (MTSI) delivered a strong quarterly performance with revenue growth of 24.5% YoY and 4.0% sequentially. The company maintained a robust gross margin of 55.9% and an FCF margin of 12.1%. Management commentary highlights continued execution within the S-P3 hardware stack and AI-B positioning, supported by a perfect track record of four consecutive earnings beats over the last year.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates