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CDNS

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. Y

M1: Compounder Avoid (37)
265.76
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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20.0%
16.6%
22.9%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🔴 Avoid
37.4 /100
🏗️ Structural 19.4 /40
Quality Score: 40.5 × 0.4
S-P1 Stack: S-P1

Strategic design tool monopoly

G-OPERATOR Governance: G-OPERATOR

Execution specialist (High ROIC)

H-FORTRESS Fortress Balance Sheet

Net cash position with >10x interest coverage.

W-SWITCH High Switching Costs

Mission-critical integration creates high barriers to exit.

M1 Methodology: M1

High retention, Rule of 40+

🌊 Thematic 18.0 /30
Strong Conviction (18.0 pts)
C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

C1 Cycle: C1

Inventory-driven volatility

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

CAT-2 Earnings Execution Premium

The company maintains a perfect 4/4 earnings beat track record over the last year; a continuation of this trend in the upcoming $1.88 EPS print could trigger a short-term valuation re-rating.

T1 Tailwind: T1

Benefits from economic cycle upturn

CAT-1 AI-Driven Design Complexity

As an AI-B beneficiary, CDNS is positioned to capture increased R&D spend from hyperscalers and semiconductor firms developing custom silicon, supported by T1 and T6 tailwinds.

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-1 Smart Money Divergence

A stark conflict exists between analyst optimism (+39.4% upside) and insider behavior, with net shares sold totaling 83,272 and a sell-to-buy value ratio exceeding 1,900:1 ($27.2M sold vs $13.8k bought).

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

RISK-2 EPS Growth Deceleration

Forward analyst estimates indicate a sharp deceleration in EPS growth, falling from 20.0% in the current quarter to 10.6% in the next quarter, signaling potential margin compression or slowing software licensing cycles.

Tactical 0.0 /30
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

Cadence Design Systems is a leading provider of electronic design automation (EDA) software, hardware, and intellectual property. The company's tools are essential for designing complex integrated circuits, systems-on-chips, and printed circuit boards across the semiconductor and electronics industries.

Market Cap 73.35B
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth 0.1%
Gross Margin
CEO: Dr. Anirudh Devgan Ph.D.
Sector: Technology • Software - Application

Investment Thesis

🎯 Increased R&D spend from hyperscalers developing custom AI silicon requiring advanced EDA tools.

While extreme insider selling—evidenced by a sell-to-buy ratio exceeding 1,900:1—signals internal skepticism regarding near-term valuation, the company remains a fundamental beneficiary of custom silicon tailwinds. The investment story is currently split between a perfect 4/4 earnings beat record and a projected cooling of the software design cycle. Although analyst consensus targets a 39.4% upside, the immediate financial data shows a transition toward more moderate expansion as the industry digests previous R&D investments.

Bear 275.00
Bull 410.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2026-04-03 Sell 280.2K
2026-03-18 Sell 21.4K
2026-03-18 Sell 16.2K
2026-03-18 Sell 8.6K
2026-03-18 Sell 1.8K

🔭 Quarterly Summary

Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) demonstrated resilient performance with revenue growth of 6.2% YoY and 7.6% sequentially. The company maintains an elite margin profile, reporting a gross margin of 86.9% and a TTM FCF margin of 30.0%. As an S-P1 software provider in the EDA space, management commentary highlights continued momentum from AI-driven chip design complexity (AI-B), though overall revenue growth remains in the single digits compared to more aggressive historical cycles.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates