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BRK.B

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Y

M3: CapEx Intensive Watch (66)
479.96
+0.0%
Updated

Valuation

Fair Value
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1Y Target
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3Y Target
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14.6%
8.1%
21.1%
4.0%
10.5%

Opportunity Score

🟡 Watch
66.1 /100
🏗️ Structural 32.1 /40
Quality Score: 72.3 × 0.4
M3 Methodology: M3

Utilization-driven leverage

S-I1-GRID Stack: S-I1-GRID

Traditional grid, slow returns

G-ALLOCATOR Governance: G-ALLOCATOR

M&A and buyback specialist

W-IRREPRODUCIBLE Moat: W-IRREPRODUCIBLE

Physical scarcity, regulatory permission, or living data moat

W-SCALE Economies of Scale

Massive scale provides structural cost advantage.

S-POWER-SECURE Integrated Power Moat

The company's extensive utility and energy holdings provide a secure power supply, mitigating risks associated with grid constraints during the AI expansion cycle.

🌊 Thematic 24.0 /30
High Conviction (24.0 pts)
T9 Tailwind: T9

Beneficiary of 2025/26 policy shifts

T6 Tailwind: T6

AI & robotics labor replacement

C5 Cycle: C5

Inverse correlation to yields

C2 Cycle: C2

Hyperscaler spending dependency

RISK-3 Earnings Volatility

The company has an inconsistent earnings track record with 2 beats and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, complicating forward-looking valuation models.

RISK-1 EPS Growth Deceleration

Analyst estimates indicate a sharp deceleration in EPS growth from +14.6% in the current quarter to -2.1% in the next quarter, suggesting a structural slowdown in near-term profitability.

CAT-1 Infrastructure Cycle Tailwinds

As an S-I1-GRID classified entity, Berkshire is positioned to capture value from T6, T9, and T10 tailwinds related to grid modernization and AI-driven power demand.

AI-B AI: AI-B

Infrastructure/CapEx dependent

RISK-2 Aggressive Insider Selling

Insiders have sold a net 2,390,512 shares over the last six months, valued at approximately $281.7 million, signaling a bearish sentiment regarding near-term valuation peaks.

T10 Tailwind: T10

Non-tech AI adoption J-curve inflection

T4 Sovereign Resilience

Sovereign resilience & energy security

Tactical 10.0 /30
✓ Cycle Tailwind (+10)
V-WIDE-MOAT Wide Moat

Durable competitive advantage supports higher terminal growth.

Overview

Berkshire Hathaway is a diversified holding company that manages a vast array of subsidiaries across insurance, freight rail transportation, and energy generation. The firm operates as a centralized capital allocator, utilizing insurance float to fund the acquisition and operation of capital-intensive industrial and utility assets.

Market Cap 1.04T
P/E (TTM)
Rev Growth -0.0%
Gross Margin
CEO: Mr. Gregory Edward Abel
Sector: Financial Services • Insurance - Diversified

Investment Thesis

🎯 The S-POWER-SECURE integrated power moat which provides a structural advantage during the AI-driven grid modernization cycle.

While Berkshire Hathaway faces an imminent earnings contraction with EPS growth projected to swing from 14.6% to -2.1% next quarter, the company’s ownership of irreproducible physical assets provides a defensive layer against AI-driven energy scarcity. Recent insider selling totaling 2,390,512 shares signals caution regarding current valuation peaks, particularly as the firm navigates an inconsistent earnings track record. However, its classification within the S-I1-GRID segment suggests that its utility and energy holdings are insulated from the deflationary pressures affecting software-based AI plays. Despite a compressed free cash flow margin of 5.7%, the firm’s control over power supply remains a critical differentiator in a market increasingly constrained by grid capacity.

Bear 481.00
Bull 578.00

🕵️ Insider Radar

Net 6M: 0.0000 shares
Buys: 0 | Sells: 0
Date Insider Type Value
2025-10-29 Sell 54.3M

🔭 Quarterly Summary

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) demonstrated a 9.8% year-over-year revenue growth, supported by its diverse industrial and insurance holdings. Despite the revenue expansion, the company maintains a tight FCF margin of 5.7%. Segment performance remains heavily influenced by the S-I1-GRID classification, reflecting significant exposure to infrastructure and utility cycles. Management commentary, reflected in the AI-B positioning, suggests a strategic focus on long-term infrastructure tailwinds (T6, T9, T10) while navigating late-cycle (C5) pressures.

Financial Performance

Analyst EPS Estimates