Anthropic Commitments and Palantir Earnings Test Compute and Software Themes

The setup — Monday's session delivered two concrete tests of whether artificial intelligence demand is translating into durable commercial orders. Anthropic disclosed $895.4 billion in purchase commitments alongside an elevenfold jump in quarterly revenue, while Palantir Technologies ($PLTR) reported after the bell that its US commercial sales overtook government revenue for the first time. Both reports strengthen the demand side of our compute, cloud, and software themes even as rising memory costs and stretched capital budgets weigh on hardware margins.

What changed for the themes

Our AI Compute Build-out theme gained fresh evidence that the largest AI buyers are still raising their capital budgets. During Monday's session, Anthropic disclosed in a revised S-1 registration statement that it holds $895.4 billion in purchase commitments, while its third-quarter revenue grew more than elevenfold from a year earlier to $17 billion (per CNBC). Hardware consolidation also accelerated during the session as Marvell Technology ($MRVL) announced a $115 billion deal to buy optical networking supplier Lumentum Holdings ($LITE), expected to close in the first half of 2028 (per TechCrunch and CNBC). Both companies fell sharply on the news, with Lumentum down 18.6% to $684.40 and Marvell down 12.7% to $171.41. After the close, Apple ($AAPL) warned that unprecedented memory chip costs will continue to climb, driving its inventory up 154% to $14.5 billion and weighing on its gross margin outlook (per TechCrunch and MarketWatch). That extends the supply tightrope we tracked in last week's brief on memory costs.

Our AI Platforms & Cloud theme and our AI Software & Agents theme both received new support on the narrative that enterprise AI is moving from pilots into production. After Monday's close, Palantir reported that its third-quarter US commercial revenue rose 148% to $984 million, surpassing its $953 million in government revenue for the first time (per CNBC). Even so, analysts noted slowing contract growth, and Palantir shares fell 8% in after-hours trading (per CNBC). Across our software universe, Salesforce ($CRM), Adobe ($ADBE), and ServiceNow ($NOW) currently screen as cheap against their own valuation histories by our readings.

While our formal narrative readings on our AI Power & Critical Minerals theme did not change on Monday, utility and infrastructure spending continued to build around the session. Before Monday's open, Exelon said it is eyeing $8 billion in energy storage and transmission investments partly to address a supply crunch on the PJM grid (per Utility Dive). After the close, Brookfield outlined plans for a $27 billion AI data centre at a UK power station (per CNBC). Nothing material changed in our readings for our Robotics & Physical AI theme.

Risks to watch

The central strain across both the compute and cloud themes is whether capital spending is outrunning the returns and cash flows required to sustain it. By our signals dashboard, hyperscaler capital expenditure is running 100.5% above last year—more than two standard deviations above its ten-year average—putting the AI infrastructure cycle in saturation while high-yield credit spreads have widened 20 basis points over the past month to 344 basis points. After Monday's close, Blackstone President Jon Gray warned that the AI infrastructure build-out needs more equity financing as debt investors face mounting concentration risks (per CNBC).

That credit pressure does not hit every builder equally. In our readings, Microsoft ($MSFT) paid for all of its capital spending over the past year—equal to 39% of its revenue—out of operating cash flow, and holds more cash than debt. By contrast, Amazon ($AMZN) spent 128% of its operating cash flow on capital expenditure over the past year as its long-term debt rose 228%, while Oracle ($ORCL) is burning cash with rising debt. Specialised cloud builder CoreWeave ($CRWV) spent 298% of its operating cash flow on capital expenditure over the past year while its long-term debt rose 185%, and its operating profit fell short of an interest bill that reached 21% of revenue. A tightening credit market barely touches self-funded balance sheets, but directly threatens debt-funded capacity expansion.

The companies

CoreWeave fell 8.6% on Monday to $50.15, while fellow cloud infrastructure provider Nebius Group ($NBIS) dropped 8.3% to $141.39. Nothing in Monday's filings or coverage explains either move. In our readings, CoreWeave's contracted backlog—future revenue locked in under customer contracts—grew 245% over the past year against 115% revenue growth, but the company is burning cash equal to 188% of revenue after stock-based compensation and carries warning language in its latest filing.

In our power and critical minerals universe, USA Rare Earth ($USAR) fell 8.0% to $8.86, Energy Fuels ($UUUU) declined 4.2% to $7.39, and Denison Mines ($DNN) slipped 3.6% to $2.13. None of the three had corporate filings or news during the session to explain the selling. By our readings, Denison and Energy Fuels benefit from an expanding uranium cycle and supportive nuclear power narratives, whereas USA Rare Earth carries an active warning for heavy share dilution.

Aeva Technologies ($AEVA), which rides our robotics theme, fell 7.2% to $8.60 without any company-specific news or filings. Our readings show a sharp contrast for the sensor maker: it trades at the 5th percentile of its own valuation history, making it historically cheap, but its annual revenue growth has slowed from 111% to 56%, an contracting automotive cycle works against it, and it burns cash after stock pay equal to 675% of revenue.

Among the cloud platforms, Microsoft fell 2.8% to $507.12 while Amazon rose 2.2% to $245.63. Microsoft filed a Rule 424(b)(2) prospectus before Monday's open (per the 424B2), though we do not have its text, so it explains nothing about the stock's move; Amazon had no filings or news. In our readings, Microsoft's contracted backlog rose 72% over the past year, but the stock sits at the 98th percentile of its own valuation history and prices in roughly 26% annual cash-flow growth. Amazon sits near the middle of its historical valuation at the 59th percentile.

The backdrop

Technology shares led Monday's pullback as the Nasdaq 100 ETF ($QQQ) fell 1.4% to $681.09, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.1%, and the S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) slipped 0.5% to $752.10. Selling was steepest in hardware and broad tech: the Technology Sector ETF ($XLK) fell 3.0%, the Semiconductor ETF ($SMH) lost 2.7%, and the Software ETF ($IGV) declined 2.3%. Across the 67 companies we track, 55 fell and only 12 rose, with a median drop of 3.6% and none of the 18 compute stocks currently in rising price trends. Volatility climbed as the $VIX rose 8.9% to 21.15, while the 10-year Treasury yield dipped three basis points to 4.89% and WTI crude oil dropped 7.4% to $96.46.

What to watch

• Compute earnings after Tuesday's close: Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD), Arista Networks ($ANET), Astera Labs ($ALAB), and Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) are all scheduled to report after Tuesday's bell. Their orders and margin commentary will test whether Anthropic's massive purchase commitments and rising memory costs are helping or squeezing hardware suppliers.
• Software and robotics reports on Wednesday: Datadog ($DDOG) is expected to report before Wednesday's open, testing enterprise cloud and AI software consumption. Cognex ($CGNX) and Aeva Technologies are scheduled to follow on Wednesday, offering a direct check on factory automation and sensor demand.
• Optical and power earnings later in the week: Coherent ($COHR) is scheduled to report Wednesday after the close, followed by merger target Lumentum on Thursday. Power generators Vistra ($VST) on Friday morning and Constellation Energy ($CEG) on Monday morning will show whether utility contracting is keeping pace with data-centre plans.