VST Vistra Corp.
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Daily prices, adjusted for splits. P/E and P/S value each day on the results published by then; a gap in P/E means the trailing year had no profit.
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · Irving, TX · 6,390 employees · vistracorp.com
Vistra is an integrated power generator and energy retailer operating in the United States. The company produces electricity through facilities powered by nuclear, natural gas, coal, solar, and battery storage. It earns revenue by selling wholesale power and delivering electricity and natural gas to homes, businesses, and industrial consumers.
Why it is on our list: Generates power from nuclear and gas plants in competitive US markets where data-centre demand is rising.
Bull case
Contracted backlog expansion has outpaced revenue, indicating solid forward demand. The business also stands to gain if power shortages slow data-centre expansion or if nuclear generation is revived to power computing facilities.
- Annual revenue growth rose from +11% to +19%.
- Contracted backlog grew +166% over the year, against +19% for revenue.
- The share price trend is rising.
- Its sector cycle (Power Demand) is in expansion.
Bear case
The measurements do not currently make a case against the business, though a minor portion of its operations relies on the continued build-out of artificial intelligence.
- The price assumes about +11% a year cash-flow growth, more than the -6% a year it delivered.
Features
- V-ACCELERATING Growth accelerating Annual revenue growth rose from +11% to +19%. Shared by most companies we track
- F-BACKLOG-VELOCITY Backlog outpacing revenue Contracted backlog grew +166% over the year, against +19% for revenue.
- F-UPSIDE Analyst upside Analysts' average target is 30% above the price.
AI impact
Supplies what AI runs on Tailwind
Vistra sells electricity, which faces rising demand from power-hungry artificial intelligence data centers. However, the company faces the risk that growth could slow if artificial intelligence adoption stalls or if computing systems become significantly more energy efficient.
Where AI helps it
- Sells what AI workloads consume (minor)
Where AI could hurt it
- Depends on the AI build-out continuing (minor)
In the company's words
Multiple demand drivers such as emergence of large load data centers, including in response to transformations in technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and electrification of oil field operations (specifically in the Permian Basin of west Texas), have accelerated, and are expected to…
In addition, if demand does not continue to increase at a rate in line with market expectations due to various factors, such as changes in technology, more energy efficient AI solutions or slow adoption of AI products and services, economic downturns, or adverse government actions, or if we are…
Assessed by AI from the company's own annual report filed 27 Feb 2026 and quarterly report filed 10 Aug 2026. A reading of the business, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Valuation position
VST is at the 49th percentile of its own valuation history. This is a relative measurement, not a price target or recommendation, and it assumes the business is still the one its history describes.
Price ladder
The measured price sits in the Reference zone. These are reference zones, not buy instructions or forecasts that the prices will be reached.
This ladder rests on the company's own valuation history alone: there are too few comparable companies to cross-check it, so treat its zones as less certain.
What the price assumes
The measured price implies roughly +10.6% annual cash-flow growth, between +3.9% and +15.5% under other reasonable assumptions. Over the last three years it delivered -5.7% a year.
An estimate that depends on its assumptions, not a forecast.
Quality versus peers
Each dimension is shown on its own; they are not combined into a score.
Current analyst snapshot
Shown for reference only; not used in any measurement.
What would have to break
- Not triggered — Revenue decline
- Not available — Margin break
- Not triggered — Cash burn with rising debt
- Not triggered — Heavy dilution
- Not triggered — Warning language in filings
News
No recent brief on this company.