Jensen Huang's Exit and Nebius Spending Plans Test AI Compute

The setup — Building on yesterday's coverage of Nvidia's ($NVDA) board crisis, CEO Jensen Huang resigned on Thursday after reports of affairs, including one with an alleged Chinese spy (CNBC, TechCrunch). His departure draws Congressional scrutiny to China chip sales just as Nebius Group ($NBIS) outlined $40 billion in planned capital spending alongside a weak outlook, straining the financing and policy pillars of our AI compute theme. Meanwhile, cheaper frontier models and a federal nuclear reactor clearance added fresh support for our software and power themes.

What changed for the themes

Our AI compute build-out theme faced fresh strain across both export policy and cloud financing. On Thursday morning, Nvidia announced that Jensen Huang resigned as CEO, naming CFO Colette Kress as interim chief (CNBC, The Verge). While Nvidia closed down over 4% (CNBC), rival chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) and Broadcom ($AVGO) rose 5.9% and 5.5% in Thursday's session. After the close, Democrats launched a second Congressional probe into Nvidia's China sales (TechCrunch) and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick agreed to testify before the Senate Banking Committee (CNBC), while Senator Tom Cotton urged adding Chinese memory maker CXMT to the Entity List during the session (CNBC). Separately, Nebius fell 16.8% on Thursday after forecasting higher 2026 capital spending and a weak outlook (CNBC). After the bell, reports detailed Nebius's plan to fund a $40 billion expansion through customer prepayments and loans despite delays at a Microsoft ($MSFT) data centre (TechCrunch), while Nvidia-backed neocloud Nscale disclosed widening losses in an updated IPO prospectus (CNBC). That challenges the recent relief on the narrative that credit is tightening for debt-funded cloud builders, even as after-hours networking and chip beats from Cisco and Cerebras showed hardware demand holding up (CNBC, CNBC).

Our AI software and agents theme gained support on the narrative that falling inference prices are commoditising model access. On Thursday, Alphabet's ($GOOGL) Google released Gemini 4 Hydrogen, a lower-cost model that the company reported outscores its flagship Gemini 4 Argon model on the independent Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. Cheaper, more capable models lower the cost of running software agents for vendors such as Salesforce ($CRM), ServiceNow ($NOW) and Adobe ($ADBE), all three of which our readings flag as cheap against their own history. Still, enterprise adoption faces hurdles: during Thursday's session, United Airlines blocked AI agents from booking flights, citing cybersecurity risks (TechCrunch).

Our AI power and critical minerals theme also added support on its nuclear revival narrative. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Energy cleared Oklo's Groves Isotope Test Reactor for unrestricted operations. That regulatory step reinforces the thesis that nuclear energy is being revived to supply round-the-clock power for data centres.

Nothing material changed in Thursday's session for our AI platforms and cloud theme or our robotics and physical AI theme.

Risks to watch

Export rules that close markets and credit drying up for debt-funded cloud builders are two of the main threats that would break our AI compute build-out theme. The investigations into Jensen Huang's relationship with an alleged Chinese spy tied to entities supplying computing power to Huawei (CNBC), alongside calls to ban memory maker CXMT (CNBC), risk tighter export controls that could fragment the supply chain. Enacted rules cutting off Asian chipmakers or closing markets further would confirm that threat.

On the financing side, our readings already flag that the AI infrastructure capital spending cycle is in saturation, with capital outlays running 107.6% above last year (per our signals dashboard). When evaluating how this build-out is paid for, investors must separate platforms that fund spending from operating cash flow from builders that borrow. Even among the largest platforms, strain is appearing: Meta Platforms ($META) recently aimed to raise $20 billion to $25 billion in bonds after negative free cash flow, and our readings flag Oracle ($ORCL) for cash burn with rising debt. For dedicated neoclouds like CoreWeave ($CRWV), Nebius and Nscale, the credit market is existential. CoreWeave's $9 billion prepayment playbook eased debt worries earlier this week, but Nebius's 16.8% drop on higher capital spending plans and Microsoft data-centre delays (TechCrunch, CNBC) shows that relying on prepayments and loans leaves little room for schedule slips.

Finally, our readings flag company-specific warnings across the themes: Super Micro Computer ($SMCI), which fell 11.3% on Thursday, carries warning language in its filings; EQT ($EQT) faces a revenue decline; and USA Rare Earth ($USAR) carries heavy dilution.

The companies

Nebius Group fell 16.8% to $128.64 in Thursday's session, a drop that stood out from the rest of the tracked universe. During the session, the company reported third-quarter earnings that paired higher expected 2026 capital spending with a weak outlook (CNBC), followed after the close by details of its $40 billion spending plan reliant on customer prepayments and loans (TechCrunch). That aligns with our adverse reading on the stock, where a falling price trend and tightening credit for debt-funded cloud builders work against it.

CoreWeave fell 6.9% to $56.60. Nothing in the day's company-specific filings or coverage directly explains the move, though peer Nebius's earnings report during the session weighed on the neocloud group. Our readings place CoreWeave in an adverse context: while its contracted backlog grew 165% over the past year against 130% for revenue, it is burning cash equal to 213% of revenue after stock pay, its operating profit fell short of interest expenses equal to 21% of revenue, and its latest filing carries warning language.

Aeva Technologies ($AEVA), which rides our robotics theme, fell 8.1% to $11.80. Nothing in the day's filings or coverage explains the move. Our readings show a mixed picture: the stock trades at the 23rd percentile of its own valuation history with supportive narrative evidence, but it burns cash equal to 601% of revenue after stock pay, stock pay equals 140% of revenue, and annual revenue growth slowed from 90% to 63%.

In our AI power theme, Denison Mines ($DNN) fell 4.6% to $2.09, Energy Fuels ($UUUU) fell 3.6% to $6.68, and USA Rare Earth fell 2.4% to $8.07, while GE Vernova ($GEV) rose 1.3% to $818.49. Nothing in Thursday's news or filings explains their moves; Energy Fuels filed an 8-K on Monday before the market opened, but its contents are not in our coverage. The uranium miners' declines contrast with our supportive readings on the expanding uranium cycle and Thursday's Oklo reactor clearance, though Energy Fuels' operating profit fell short of interest expenses equal to 8% of revenue over the past year.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ($TSM), which rides our AI compute theme, dipped 1.9% to $405.49. The company filed a 6-K before Thursday's open and another 6-K on Friday morning, though their contents are not disclosed in our data, while coverage after the close noted analysts expect limited near-term disruption for Asian chipmakers from Nvidia's leadership change (CNBC).

The backdrop

Major indices slipped in Thursday's session as rates and volatility climbed. The S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 ETF ($QQQ) dipped 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4%. Sector funds tied to our themes lagged the broader market, with the semiconductor ETF ($SMH) down 1.0% and the software ETF ($IGV) down 0.8%, while the technology sector ETF ($XLK) fell 0.3%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points to 5.10%, the US Dollar Index gained 0.3% to 103.17, and $VIX jumped 6.9% to 18.70. Across the 67 companies we track, 45 fell and 22 rose, with a median move of -0.8%. Our universe as a whole sits at the 66th percentile of its own valuation history, with 11 of 67 companies in rising price trends.

What to watch

• Nvidia earnings on Tuesday 17 November: Nvidia is scheduled to report results after Tuesday's close. Following Jensen Huang's resignation and the appointment of CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO, investors will watch for updates on hardware demand, open-source commitments including its $12.9 billion Hugging Face acquisition (TechCrunch), and the board's internal investigation led by law firm Wachtell, Lipton (CNBC).
• Senate testimony and China chip probes: Watch for Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's scheduled testimony before the Senate Banking Committee (CNBC) and any Commerce Department decision on adding Chinese memory maker CXMT to the Entity List (CNBC).
• Software earnings next week: Palo Alto Networks ($PANW) is expected to report after the close on Wednesday 18 November, followed by Intuit ($INTU) on Thursday 19 November, which our readings flag as cheap against its own history in a neutral context. Their results will test enterprise software spending and AI adoption.