GOOGL Alphabet Inc.
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Daily prices, adjusted for splits. P/E and P/S value each day on the results published by then; a gap in P/E means the trailing year had no profit.
Bull case
- Returns on capital run well above its cost of capital.
- Annual revenue growth rose from +13% to +20%.
- It holds more cash than debt and is profitable.
- Contracted backlog grew +380% over the year, against +20% for revenue.
Bear case
- Burns cash after stock pay (-3% of revenue).
- Trades at the 84th percentile of its own valuation history.
- The price assumes about +37% a year cash-flow growth, more than the -24% a year it delivered.
- The share price trend is still falling.
Features
- V-OVERVALUED Overvalued The price is 44% above its own-history reference value.
- V-WIDE-MOAT Wide moat Returns on capital run well above its cost of capital.
- V-ACCELERATING Growth accelerating Annual revenue growth rose from +13% to +20%. Shared by most companies we track
- H-FORTRESS Fortress balance sheet It holds more cash than debt and is profitable.
- H-BORROWING-ALONGSIDE Borrowing alongside the build-out Operating cash flow covered capital spending equal to 30% of revenue over the past year, but long-term debt rose 307%, by an amount equal to 57% of that spending.
- F-BACKLOG-VELOCITY Backlog outpacing revenue Contracted backlog grew +380% over the year, against +20% for revenue.
- F-UPSIDE Analyst upside Analysts' average target is 32% above the price. Shared by most companies we track
AI impact
Sells AI to its customers Cuts both ways
The company sells online advertising, search, workplace software, and cloud computing services that incorporate artificial intelligence. AI helps its advertising tools drive more conversions for advertisers and increases demand for its cloud infrastructure, though new AI formats and competitors could shift how search and ads earn revenue.
Where AI helps it
- Can sell AI to a large base of existing customers
- AI makes what it already sells earn more
- Sells what AI workloads consume
- Its software sits where AI agents would do the work (minor)
Where AI could hurt it
- AI tools could do part of what it sells
- Borrows to build the AI capacity it sells or runs (minor)
- A few AI customers buy much of what it sells (minor)
In the company's words
◦ Gemini for Google Workspace: brings our AI-powered agents into Gmail, Docs, Sheets, and more to help users write, organize, visualize, accelerate workflows, and have more productive meetings.
We believe AI is quickly reshaping the advertising industry, including how ads are delivered online, and we and our competitors are constantly adjusting to meet this shift and provide new and evolving advertising formats.
Assessed by AI from the company's own annual report filed 5 Feb 2026 and quarterly report filed 29 Oct 2026. A reading of the business, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Valuation position
GOOGL is at the 84th percentile of its own valuation history. Depending on how far back you look, it ranges from the 73rd to the 92nd percentile. This is a relative measurement, not a price target or recommendation, and it assumes the business is still the one its history describes.
The band is the range it reads at depending on how far back you look; the dot is where this page places it.
Price ladder
The measured price sits in the Above reference zone. These are reference zones, not buy instructions or forecasts that the prices will be reached.
This ladder rests on the company's own valuation history alone: there are too few comparable companies to cross-check it, so treat its zones as less certain.
What the price assumes
The measured price implies roughly +37.4% annual cash-flow growth, between +28.6% and +44.1% under other reasonable assumptions. Over the last three years it delivered -23.5% a year.
An estimate that depends on its assumptions, not a forecast.
Quality versus peers
Each dimension is shown on its own; they are not combined into a score.
Current analyst snapshot
Shown for reference only; not used in any measurement.
What would have to break
- Not triggered — Revenue decline
- Not available — Margin break
- Not triggered — Cash burn with rising debt
- Not triggered — Heavy dilution
- Not triggered — Warning language in filings
News
No recent brief on this company.