STX Seagate Technology Holdings PLC
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Daily prices, adjusted for splits. P/E and P/S value each day on the results published by then; a gap in P/E means the trailing year had no profit.
Computer Hardware · Singapore, Singapore · 30,000 employees · seagate.com
Seagate Technology Holdings produces and distributes a variety of digital storage products, including hard disk and solid-state drives designed for consumer, enterprise, and cloud environments. The business generates revenue by supplying these hardware systems to distributors, retail outlets, and equipment manufacturers across various commercial sectors.
Bull case
The company converts a healthy portion of its revenue into free cash flow after accounting for stock compensation while generating returns on capital well above its financing costs. It also benefits from a broad tailwind as a supplier of storage systems consumed by artificial intelligence workloads.
- The price assumes about +22% a year cash-flow growth; it delivered +78% a year over three years.
- Turns 24% of revenue into free cash after stock pay.
- Returns on capital run well above its cost of capital.
Bear case
Annual revenue growth has begun to slow, and the business remains reliant on the continued expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure spending.
- Trades at the 92nd percentile of its own valuation history.
- Annual revenue growth fell from +39% to +34%.
- Its sector cycle (AI Infrastructure CapEx) is in saturation.
Features
- V-OVERVALUED Overvalued The price is 325% above its own-history reference value.
- V-WIDE-MOAT Wide moat Returns on capital run well above its cost of capital.
- V-DECELERATING Growth slowing Annual revenue growth fell from +39% to +34%.
- F-UPSIDE Analyst upside Analysts' average target is 46% above the price.
AI impact
Supplies what AI runs on Tailwind
The company sells high-capacity data storage used in artificial intelligence computing. Its main advantage is growing customer demand for storage infrastructure to support expanding data workloads, while its primary risk stems from unpredictable ordering patterns tied to the pace and monetization of customers' infrastructure investments.
Where AI helps it
- Sells what AI workloads consume
Where AI could hurt it
- Depends on the AI build-out continuing
- AI is pulling customers' spending towards other products (minor)
In the company's words
Data Center : Cloud and enterprise environments that rely on scalable, high-capacity storage infrastructure to support AI-enabled computing, business-critical applications and other data-intensive workloads.
Demand for our products may fluctuate significantly and can be difficult to predict due to changes in customer inventory levels, technology transitions, cloud capital spending, the timing of hyperscale deployments, our customers’ capital expenditure budgets and the pace of their AI-related…
Assessed by AI from the company's own annual report filed 4 Aug 2026. A reading of the business, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Valuation position
STX is at the 92nd percentile of its own valuation history. This is a relative measurement, not a price target or recommendation, and it assumes the business is still the one its history describes.
Price ladder
The measured price sits in the Above reference zone. These are reference zones, not buy instructions or forecasts that the prices will be reached.
This ladder rests on the company's own valuation history alone: there are too few comparable companies to cross-check it, so treat its zones as less certain.
What the price assumes
The measured price implies roughly +22.5% annual cash-flow growth, between +14.8% and +28.2% under other reasonable assumptions. Over the last three years it delivered +77.9% a year.
An estimate that depends on its assumptions, not a forecast.
Quality versus peers
Each dimension is shown on its own; they are not combined into a score.
Current analyst snapshot
Shown for reference only; not used in any measurement.
What would have to break
- Not triggered — Revenue decline
- Not available — Margin break
- Not triggered — Cash burn with rising debt
- Not triggered — Heavy dilution
- Not triggered — Warning language in filings
News
No recent brief on this company.